An Autopsy of the Winnipeg Jets: The Depth Forwards (+ Recent Additions)
A series of postmortem analyses of the 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets
Pre-Blog Note: In season we follow a Monday and Friday free post and Wednesday paid-tier post. However, with the summer scheduling, it will be a bit more varied and less set which days will be for which articles.
We continue our series on the 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets, analyzing individual players, their performance, and their potential to contribute to a future championship team. Today, we focus on the rest of the Jets, including some recent additions.
I’m going to bury my lede a bit here.
The 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets had one elite strength: goaltending. There are very few that would argue against that. Hellebuyck won the Vezina, it was one vote shy from unanimous, and I don’t think there were many rational pundits arguing against it.
Sometimes people get mad when statistical analysts point out that a team’s performance was heavily carried due to goaltending. The common counter argument is that goaltenders are part of the team, but this misses the entire point.
Goalies have a heavy influence on team performance. This means a team may be way better or worse than their record outside of the net.
The Jets did have two other strengths, though.
Their defensive performance as both a team and as individuals was pretty solid to great, with a few exceptions (mostly those on the coach’s favorite top line configuration). The other strength was the Jets' depth, especially at forward, which was really, really good.
HockeyViz.com’s synthetic Goals (sG) model suggests that all of the Jets’ many forwards performed like bona fide NHL players, and all but three were third line or better.
Taking a weighted average of the different components of Evolving-Hockey.com’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) models suggests that nine of the Jets’ forwards performed above league average, and that’s excluding the trade acquisitions of Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan.
Only Mason Appleton performed in the bottom quartile of the league, although Morgan Barron, David Gustafsson, and Rasmus Kupari were so close it’s statistically indistinguishable.
No matter which model you look at, they all suggest that the Jets had very solid depth.
AJF is everything you could want from an AHL to NHL tweener. Jonsson-Fjallby played 76 regular season games for Winnipeg, 50 in 2022-23 and 26 in 2023-24. In both seasons, he outperformed many of the regulars on the Jets roster.
He played some fairly sheltered minutes but excelled in those minutes. The Jets outshot (Corsi) opponents by 10.9 shots per hour, the highest on the team after Toffoli and Ehlers. He falls to about team average with +0.23 expected goals per hour, but climbs back up with +1.46 goals per hour.
In data I tracked manually for our Wednesday paid-tier posts, he was about team average with 6.16 scoring chance contributions (shots and passes) per hour, and his transitional game was just slightly below average with producing about 12.03 expected shots per hour. He was slightly higher in the defensive zone possession loss category, but not significantly so.
Where he really provides value is in his forechecking.
The 26-year-old AJF is signed for one more season at $775,000, where he should continue being a great call-up option. Although, those opportunities may dwindle as the Jets look at playing some of their youth, like Brad Lambert, more.
It may seem harsh, but Toninato is basically AJF but older, slower, and maybe worse… but more the first two than the last one. He’s also a center.
Like Jonsson-Fjallby, Toninato played the role of NHL tweener and call-up option, and handled it fairly well in the minutes he played. His results in shots, goals, and expected goal differential are not that dissimilar from AJF. That said, I’m uncertain he was the driver of that bus given that “Gus bus,” Gustafsson, was even better between AJF and Morgan Barron.
Regardless, there’s not much more one could ask for in a depth forward than to come in and be just as good as guys staying in the show. He was a bit of a turnover machine in the defensive zone, which a lot came from when Bowness inexplicably put him in the top-nine, which may just have been more than Toninato can handle.
Like AJF, Toninato has one more year at $775,000. The difference is he’ll be a 31-year-old free agent, not 27.
David Gustafsson seems to be a fan favorite on Twitter and a few other places.
I get it.
A second-round draft pick gave him a lot of draft pedigree, especially given the Jets’ lack of a first-round pick that year due to the Paul Stastny trade. At 6’2 and 190 lbs, he’s not a small guy (which ironically is my height and weight), but he also plays big in that he’s very hard to get off the puck.
Other than that, he’s not been that great. Unlike Adam Lowry, another bigger center drafted in the early "non-first-rounds” who plays a more defensive game, he’s not provided strong results, and at 24 his window is shrinking.
Don’t get me wrong. We’re not talking a Saku Maenalanen or Karson Kuhlman below replacement player. But, I’m starting to get skeptical that Gus has more than a capable fourth-line player in him. Gustafsson had the team’s lowest scoring chance shots and assists combined on the team relative to ice time.
He has two more years signed at $835,000 to prove me wrong, where he’ll become a restricted free agent and arbitration eligible.
Morgan Barron
Morgan Barron took quite a bit of a step back this season. I’m not sure how much of that is a step back due to role, where last season he played more as a third-line player, while he was a fourth-line staple. The sole exception was for the first shift after a power play, where Rick Bowness would send out the Lowry and Appleton duo, but with Barron instead of Nino Niederreiter. It could also be bad luck (or good luck earlier), injuries, or other factors.
Like Gustafsson, Barron is a young NHL player with some promise for some upside, but a window that is closing for being anything more than a useful bottom-six piece.
I do have a bit more hope for Barron than the other individuals covered here. The reason is due to Barron’s ability to create chances on his own, without any assistance.
Barron created 4.88 scoring chance shots per hour at 5v5. That places him under Vilardi and Scheifele but above Monahan and Perfetti. The difference for Barron is that very few of his scoring chances came from any scoring chance passes.
One could argue that’s representative of a hockey IQ issue, which may be the case, but I still view it as positive that he could create so many chances with so little offensive help from linemates.
If he does have some upside, he has another year with his two-year, $1.35 million contract he signed last summer before he becomes an RFA again with arbitration eligibility.
There’s a lot to like with Rasmus Kupari, and a lot to dislike. While I’m uncertain of arguments against Barron’s hockey IQ, I’m fairly positive Kupari is more tools than toolbox.
Kupari is fast and plays fast. But he doesn’t seem to use it as effectively as someone like Jonsson-Fjallby. Kupari actually was a strong performer in zonal transition. Only Ehlers, Connor, Scheifele, and Barron had a higher expected shot generation from transition than Kupari.
Despite all that transition, the Jets did not create much there. Kupari, unlike Barron, got the puck into the offensive zone but the Jets never really created chances from that transition. The Jets' actual shots were much lower than the expected number.
For this reason, Kupari was near the bottom of the roster in shots (Corsi), expected goal, and goal differential per hour of 5v5 ice time. Unlike Barron, Kupari doesn’t have any history of good results to suggest there’s potentially more there.
And, Kupari is the same age as Gustafsson and Vilardi, and only a year younger than Barron. Heck, he’s only two years younger than “veteran” Jonsson-Fjallby who joined the Jets two years ago.
Signings / Additions
Forwards
Let’s start off with saying Jaret almost has the perfect first name. I personally would swap the J for a G and maybe add another r in there, but that’s cool. Anderson-Dolan also is a proud son of two moms that he loves, and I think that’s also awesome.
As an NHL hockey player, though, there’s not as much to talk about. Anderson-Dolan has been about as replacement level as they come, riding right on that line. He’s twice scored seven goals, which is fairly impressive for his limited ice time and games played.
He has played very well in the AHL, so he adds a lot of depth and insulation there. He also adds some youthful competition, being 24 years old.
JAD gets the AJF contract, a two-year $775,000 contract. We’ll likely see him in a similar role, although his call-ups may be even more sparse given the team still having AJF and Toninato, plus Lambert pushing for a spot.
Mason Shaw had significant ACL injuries in both 2019 and 2023, severely limiting his playing time over the past few seasons.
With only 82 NHL games over the past three years, Shaw has limited experience but has played a predominantly low-event game, suppressing offense for both sides in fairly sheltered minutes.
While there's uncertainty about his potential, taking a flyer on a player with an injury history who could have untapped potential seems worthwhile. The worst-case scenario is that he serves as a competent press box fill-in or depth call-up.
There's not much to write about the 24-year-old, but he's another depth piece signed at a very low cost of $775,000. However, he's guaranteed $425,000, making him an expensive AHL depth forward if that ends up being the case.
Defenders
Haydn Fleury
Haydn Fleury has a great name.
The former seventh overall draft pick has struggled to stay in one place, with the Jets being his fifth team in six seasons.
Fleury was once viewed as an analytics darling, producing strong results with suboptimal defensive partners. However, while the Carolina Hurricanes often find underrated analytics players, their roster full of such players may create a "rising tide raises all boats" situation.
We have yet to see Fleury replicate those results outside Carolina.
Fleury adds defensive depth and competition, likely filling the role of a press box option as an 8th defenseman, with Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley fighting for the 6th and 7th spots.
The 28-year-old Fleury signed a $775,000 contract, typical of Cheveldayoff's depth player signings.
I didn't cover Miller initially because I thought there was close to zero chance he would want to stay in Winnipeg. The Jets used draft capital to add him, hoping to push a struggling Pionk down.
Instead, Miller spent most of his time in the press box.
To my surprise, Miller signed a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract extension with the Jets. Kevin Cheveldayoff and possibly Scott Arniel must have sold Miller on a more substantial role moving forward.
Miller is a great third-pairing, right-shot defender. While Nate Schmidt (a lefty) fits a similar role, the price tags are much different.
Miller's signing suggests Elias Salomonsson will primarily play in the AHL this year. If Salomonsson plays well enough to push Miller to the press box, it won't be a bad thing. However, the best option would likely be moving out Pionk's big contract somehow.
Dylan Coghlan is a right-shot defenseman who scored three goals in the same game he scored his first. That's kind of neat. Dylan DeMelo, Logan Stanley, Nate Schmidt, and Dylan Samberg all scored three goals or fewer last season.
Coghlan comes from the Carolina Hurricanes' analytics school, like Fleury, showing decent xGAR and sG results. However, his 18 games may be inflated. He seemed like an okay third-pairing option in Vegas.
Like Fleury, Coghlan is a fine depth defender but not good enough to block young options with upside like Heinola.
Coghlan, a restricted free agent, was given away by Carolina to the Jets for free.
The 26-year-old is a solid depth pickup, but things are getting crowded. Morrissey, DeMelo, and Samberg are locks for the roster, and unfortunately—barring a trade—so is Pionk. That likely creates your top-six.
Cheveldayoff likes to play his cards close to his chest, but I think the plan is for Miller to anchor the right side of the third pair with either Heinola or Stanley. The other will sit in the press box with one of Fleury or Coghlan.
My guess is that Coghlan and Simon Lundmark will be placed on waivers in camp. Then again, Coghlan may beat out Fleury, and being a right shot helps his case.
The Moose would then have Salomonsson, Kuzmin, Lundmark, Bauer, and one of Fleury or Coghlan (provided they don't get picked up on waivers) all on NHL deals.
Goalies
Eric Comrie
We've been here before.
I remember long ago, Jets fans and media debated which prospect would become the better goalie: Connor Hellebuyck or Eric Comrie. I am not always right, but I ended up being right in that debate.
Comrie has played in four separate seasons for the Winnipeg Jets and six seasons for the Manitoba Moose, with five games for the IceCaps before that.
Comrie is a pretty solid AHL goaltender, with a career 0.912 save percentage. Provided he doesn't get picked up on waivers, he provides great insurance for Kaapo Kahkonen and a call-up option if there are any injuries.
The second year on Comrie's $825,000 AAV contract and the fact that the Jets usually claim Comrie means he's probably waiver-proof, but we'll see. There's always a chance Comrie beats out Kahkonen for the backup job, as Kahkonen hasn't been that great.
Kaapo Kahkonen
Speaking of which...
Connor Hellebuyck, one of this generation's greatest netminders, has averaged about 0.594 goals above replacement per hour of ice time over the past three years. His career pace is 0.497.
Comrie has a career pace of 0.037, with the past three seasons being 0.155. Kahkonen is 0.013 and 0.108.
There will be a bit of a battle for the backup position, and I'm not 100% sure who gets it. Comrie has the attempted waiver protection of a second season and has actually played in the AHL recently. Kahkonen has a higher AAV contract with a $1 million flat salary and hasn't played in the AHL since 2019-20.
That said, Comrie has historically been better, both recently and over his career.
Neither are anything to write home about.
Final Thoughts
The Jets' forward depth was a strength last year. Even if none of the depth forwards were exceptional, they were all pretty solid.
The team is fairly crowded, even more so with the additions of Shaw and Anderson-Dolan. My expectation is those forwards start the season on the Moose, but we'll see.
Barring any surprises at camp, or younger players stealing a spot, I think this is fairly close to what we will see for the Jets this coming season, but there are many possibilities.
The Jets actually have quite a few NHL contracts in the AHL this year, which means we could see the organization use the ECHL a bit more this year.
SUMMER SERIES THUS FAR
A reminder: it really helps if you share the site with others and hit the like button. It helps expose the site and improves how it shows up via algorithms, so every bit is appreciated.
Finally, if you want to support the site while taking in even more in-depth analysis with added manually tracked microstatistics, consider upgrading to premium.