Jets vs. Avalanche: The Adaptation Divide
Analyzing How Winnipeg Struggles to Adjust While Colorado Capitalizes
Writing a series update after the first game seems a bit silly, but here we are. This post will be a bit shorter than the future versions, where we will answer your questions and go into more depth as our number of games increases.
But first, a look at prospects…
Prospect Updates
There’s not many to update on, and the only one to continue discussing after today would be Jacob Julien.
Manitoba Moose
The Manitoba Moose were swept in their best of three series against the Texas Stars.
The first game, the Moose lost 6-3. There, Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, and Daniel Torgersson were Manitoba’s three goal scorers. Vile Heinola and Kyle Capobianco each got two assists, while Brad Lambert and Mark Liwiski got the other apples.
The second game saw the Stars shut out the Moose, despite being outshot 41-22.
Arround the World
Pavel Kraskovsky’s team was swept in the KHL finals. Kraskovsky finished the playoffs with one goal and six assists.
Elias Salomonsson’s team, meanwhile, won their finals in the SHL. Salomonsson played fairly dominantly for a nineteen-year-old playing in one of the world’s premier leagues in the finals. He was the team’s number one defender at even strength for ice time and finished the series with about a 54% Corsi. He will likely be coming across the water next year.
An amateur scout recently joked that the London Knights don’t prepare you to face adversity as you never lose. Well, the Knights are 10-1 right now, sweeping their first two series and were only two wins away from sweeping their third. Jacob Julien has seven goals and five assists in London’s 11 games.
The Playoffs Thus Far
FORWARDS
Weighted shots are like Corsi, but goals are worth a lot more than non-goal shots, and I regress those goals somewhat towards their expected goal values. This model is slightly less descriptive than expected goal models but is actually more predictive than either expected goals or Corsi.
I don’t feel like I should have to give this disclaimer every time, but since there were a few on social media who don’t understand: models are representations of what happens. They are like a map; an imperfect representation of the terrain that still accurately tells you where to go.
The short story is that, while no one is playing well, some are struggling more than others.
The Jets' fourth line, which was supposed to be a strength for Winnipeg over Colorado, has been quite bad. The gamble Rick Bowness had with dressing Axel Jonsson-Fjallby over a 19-goal scorer also did not pay off at all, and he did not play any penalty kill minutes despite stating that was the primary rationale behind the decision.
There are not many centers near the top, and a lot of that comes from extra defensive zone draw assignments Mark Scheifele and Sean Monahan have taken. I’m unsure skeptical this tactical decision has paid off either. The Jets still struggle in face-offs, and those players have mostly been pinned in with the team having one forward playing out of position each time.
A lot has been discussed on Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers. Both have been disappointing and have fallen short of what the team needs from them. To be fair, Connor’s weighted shots are actually better than the regular season. He’s the only forward that has been better, with being the worst Jet regular after Rasmus Kupari in the regular season but the best in the postseason.
Ehlers has not shed his playoff curse or narrative or whatever it is.
Regardless, the Jets have more and bigger problems than those two, but neither have been an answer either.
DEFENDERS
Like the forwards, there’s no Jets that really stand out in a positive manner. Just some are more painful.
Josh Morrissey has been the least painful, but there’s a lot to be desired from your top defender, and arguably your most important player after your goaltender, than being only “slightly” outscored and shot.
The Jets’ lack of mobility in their backend, being the bigger and stronger defensive team doesn’t matter if you can’t keep up to your opponents.
OVERALL
There’s something not talked about that much… The Jets at 5v5 are doing just as good offensively as they always have. Sure some players have droughts but some have streaks. It’s averaged out a fairly typical Jets’ performance offensively.
It’s defense that’s the issue.
The Jets are generating only about two fewer shot attempts than in the regular season. Their expected goal generation is almost exactly on top of their non-playoff performance. Heck, their goal generation is actually better than the regular season.
However, they have allowed almost 20 more attempts against per hour, about a goal and a half expected more than normal, and two actual goals more per hour.
It looks really ugly when you see it on one of Micah Blake McCurdy’s charts:
The San Jose Sharks were the worst 5v5 defensive NHL team this season, allowing 3.11 expected goals against per hour. The Jets have allowed 3.66 against COL.
Their penalty kill is just as bad:
The Detroit Red Wings were the worst 4v5 defensive team, allowing 9.23. Jets meanwhile are allowing 10.47 expected goals.
Not great.
And here’s a wild trivia stat: the Jets are actually above 100 in PDO. In other words, the Jets are scoring more goals per shot on net than the Avs. They even have the highest 5v5 shooting percentage of the entire playoffs.
Meghan Chakya of Stathletes provided some insight and proprietary analytics:
…another thing I notice is that Colorado is dominating what was a 'strength vs strength' matchup heading into this series - scoring chances off the rush. The Avalanche (+70) and Jets (+62) ranked 3rd and 4th in the league, respectively, in rush scoring chance differential during the regular season. The Avalanche have scored at least once off the rush in each game of this series and are +7 in scoring chance differential entering Game 5.
So it’s fair to say that the adjustments, or lackthereof, made by both teams has resulted in the Avalanche
Now to look at The Five Hohl’s microstatistics…
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