Are the changes good? Bad? Is the team better or worse? How much different are they?

Well... let’s take a look at each individual and how these playe…

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Let’s celebrate with poor SEO structure, burying the lead, and just catching up... because why not.

The Winnipeg Jets won the Presidents’ Trophy merely two seasons ago.

They followed that up with a disaster …

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And then they won.

And then the trade call happened.

https://x.com/WPGMurat/status/2029789738161578394

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While the Jets never held a lead for a single second in regulation, they were able to pull together and add another tick in the win column.

Yay.

But in all seriousness, the game had some ups and downs and was largely a positive showing for the first game after a long break.

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The Winnipeg Jets lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-1. Once again, this team struggled to perform, dropping to 1-2-1 over their last four games.

There were some positive performances, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

Let’s look further.

It feels weird to say, but I honestly have pretty low motivation this evening. I’m going to skip the easy joke about comparing that motivation to the team, and just say I’ll keep things relatively short.

I have added a few more random comments and topics so it’s not a complete write off.

Recap

The game wasn’t pretty, but the Jets were not totally without fight.

About two-thirds of the way through the game, Winnipeg was trailing by two goals while being slightly outshot and outchanced, but they were still competing.

Then, about halfway through the third period, the team seemingly gave up.

The third pairing was a disaster, as was the Jonathan Toews line.

Before the line blender came out, the second line and third pairing were both under 10 percent in Corsi and expected goals. That poor play was reflected on the scoreboard as well, as they allowed two goals against.

Morgan Barron had himself a good game and was deserving of his promotion. He nearly dragged Cole Perfetti out of that sub 10 percent hole into the positives.

I understand why Luke Schenn is playing right now; the Jets likely want him in the lineup to build trade value.

But I still don’t understand why they played for him for most of the season.

Or why they traded for him last year.

Well, I understand it. I just disagree with it.

Some of the worst decisions are made with best intentions.

Random Thoughts

THIS TEAM STINKS

I wanted to show this season compared to last season, not just to show how much the team has fallen, but where it has fallen.

For those that don’t like these visuals, the top three heat maps represent offensive measures while the bottom three represent defensive ones. The left side shows five-on-five shots, the center shows all-situations finishing and saves, and the right side shows special teams shots.

Last year’s team was not perfect. They were weak offensively at five-on-five and merely average on the penalty kill in terms of preventing chances.

What carried them was strong defense, a great power play, and elite finishing and goaltending.

The finishing drop should not have been a surprise. The Jets were one of the best BTN era performing five-on-four teams in both finishing and chance generation, and Winnipeg has never been consistently good in that area historically.

Fans tend to overvalue their own skilled players and convince themselves that maybe this time will be different, that the PDO run will continue.

It never does.

The team falling back to earth in PDO should have put them into fringe playoff territory, not near the bottom of the league.

However, the combined poor decisions of Kevin Cheveldayoff and Scott Arniel, dating back to last trade deadline —plus the loss of the team’s best minute-for-minute forward— amounted to a death by a thousand cuts.

That pushed the team’s floor much lower than expected.

I predicted a fall from grace in the preseason due to talent loss and likely PDO regression.

What I substantially undervalued was how much roster turnover and aging core pieces would impact the Jets’ five-on-five defense.

VILLE HEINOLA WANTS OUT

Ville Heinola recently gave an interview with Finnish media, and to paraphrase, he was not thrilled with how he has been handled and feels somewhat jilted.

I don’t think he has been given zero opportunities to succeed.

A few years ago, Heinola was slotted to play in the Jets’ top six defense group ahead of Logan Stanley, until a freak accident caused him to miss most of the season.

Unfortunately, poor talent evaluation and an overreliance on tenure pushed Heinola down the depth chart behind Stanley and others.

That’s despite the fact that Heinola has outperformed Stanley in every season they have both played in the NHL, while also being younger.

This is not exclusively a Jets problem.

The NHL as a whole struggles with the idea that a smaller defenseman who is better, or even simply less bad, than a larger defenseman is often the correct choice, even for a third pairing role.

It is a pervasive issue that has hurt defenders better than Heinola.

Smaller defensemen need to prove they belong, while larger defensemen need to prove they do not. The time afforded to each is not equitable.

I want to go further into this topic, but because it extends beyond the Jets, I will save it for a separate article in hopes of reaching a broader audience.

I will say this:

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Microstats Results

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The Winnipeg Jets beat the New Jersey Devils 4-3. For most of the game, Winnipeg looked like the better team, although there was some nail biting at the end.

Let’s take a deeper look.

But first, a word from our founder, operator, owner, and sponsor. Me.

Bonjour and bienvenue!

I have returned from my two week semi-sabbatical after spending time in Montreal for a business venture, opening a new location of the Yolks restaurant chain that I am a part of. It was fun, beautiful, and involved lots and lots of food.

Like, lots of food.

Some hole-in-the-wall spots, and of course some touristy places too. For what it’s worth, Smoke Meat Pete is better than Schwartz, in my opinion.

I’m back and will try to catch up on tracking. I did get two games done while I was away, including yesterday’s, but the rest will come over the next two weeks as I play catch up.

I don’t want to redo the entire conversation we had in the last recap here, the 5-1 win over LA, but one thing that must be noted when looking at the Deserve to Win O’Meter is that it only looks at aggregate expected goal differential, not the sequence of events.

Winnipeg was outchanced, but the lion’s share of that came when Winnipeg already had the lead.

Don’t get me wrong, allowing the other team to generate more scoring chances is bad. Period.

The Jets’ collapse nearly cost them the game. New Jersey cut a three goal lead down to one.

That’s not good.

That also does not mean that all games with the same ending xGoal differential are equal.

But I do feel like I am repeating January 9th’s breakdown a little too much here.

Okay, there is one more thing I have to repeat. The Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn pairing is bad.

Of the Jets’ most commonly used defensive pairings, their goal share looks like this:

Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo: 59%
Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk: 54%
Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn: 46%

At this level, goal share is a far inferior metric compared to Corsi% or xGoal% when evaluating true talent and predicting future success. I am using it here simply to show that it is not just the fancy numbers pointing to the Jets’ third pairing as a major issue.

This team has been outshot, outchanced, and outscored more often than not. However, the bulk of that damage has come when the third pairing is on the ice, or when injuries force mixed pairs.

When the top four are healthy and playing together, the Jets have generally won their minutes.

But at least they provide special teams value.

lol

Random Thoughts

It’s been a while, so here are some disjointed thoughts.

Nikolaj Ehlers

I miss Ehlers.

The Jets do too.

It’s funny how he was once a player whose impact was better than his raw scoring totals suggested, and now it feels like his impact was even greater than what the advanced metrics showed.

There were a lot of downstream effects from losing Ehlers that the Jets were never able to replace.

There’s a reason players like Cole Perfetti and Vlad Namestnikov are scoring less. They spent large chunks of previous seasons playing with Ehlers, who produced nearly double the points relative to ice time when paired with them.

Analytics continues to improve with context adjustments, but I still think it struggles to fully capture how much a rising or falling tide lifts or sinks everything around it through indirect and trickle-down effects.

Trade Deadline, Rebuild, Retool, And Rumours

Honestly, I don’t care much about rumours from insiders. I care more about the actions the team takes.

Insider information is, by nature, a biased snapshot.

The trade deadline has not arrived yet.

When it does, hopefully the Jets move most of their pending free agents.

Logan Stanley, Luke Schenn, Colin Miller, Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Toews, Cole Koepke, and Tanner Pearson are all set to expire.

The Jets are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs after digging themselves into a substantial hole.

MoneyPuck has Winnipeg at 6.5 percent.
Evolving-Hockey has them at 5.8 percent.
Hockey Reference sits at 3.8 percent.

No matter how you slice it, the odds are stacked against them.

I understand why the Jets may not want fans to feel like all hope is lost. I understand wanting to control the narrative. I understand avoiding the term full rebuild and leaning toward retooling at the deadline and over the summer.

My hopes are fairly simple.

They still take real action and understand who they actually are.
They make the right choices on who to sell, who to keep, and who to acquire.
They learn from their mistakes over the last year of getting older, slower, and grittier.

My Record

It is weird that the Jets went on a small point streak while I was unable to watch games live.

I don’t believe in superstitions like that, but I still find it funny.

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Microstats Results

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The Winnipeg Jets beat the LA Kings 5-1. They did so in pretty dominating fashion, with secondary goal support and strong goaltending from Eric Comrie.

A nice change of pace.

Don’t let the Deserve to Win O’Meter fool you too much.

The DtWOM looks at expected goal differential and then simulates how often teams with higher versus lower expected goal differentials historically win.

It provides good information about the tide of the game, but it ignores sequencing and game context.

The Winnipeg Jets led the LA Kings in both goals and expected goals until the final half of the third period. It wasn’t until there were about ten minutes remaining, with the Jets in a defensive shell for much of the previous stretch, that the Kings took over in expected goals.

Given the previous collapses, it makes sense from a psychological standpoint that Winnipeg traded off potential offense for limiting the Kings as much as possible while holding a substantial lead.

Score-adjusting helps determine how strong a team truly is, as better teams will still perform well even while protecting a lead. But in the context of the DtWOM, that does not mean teams with this type of xGoal sequencing win at the same rate as teams that generate the same score-adjusted differential throughout the game.

I almost always post the xG worm, but I have mostly covered that already.

As you can see, the Jets went into defensive shell mode once the third period started. It wasn’t until halfway through the game that the Kings finally climbed out of the red.

While being outchanced is always worse than not, there is a difference between being outchanced because you already built a lead and being outchanced while chasing the game.

At least the Jets are not the only team that cannot hit the net.

It is interesting to see how different the MoneyPuck and HockeyViz models are here. MoneyPuck ignores blocked shots, which is why Malott had the highest xG volume for the Kings there, while Kuzmenko led in HockeyViz.

Jonathan Toews finally scored after a long drought, but I noticed something. I don’t think Toews has a single goal this season scored directly off a clean shot from his stick.

He has a tip-in goal against Calgary on October 20th, a redirection against Calgary again on October 25th, and now two goals off his skates, one in this game and one in Vancouver on November 12th.

A goal is a goal, but it is a funny anecdote.

Because the Jets were leading for most of the game, Scott Arniel never went to the line blender.

There was still plenty of mixing with Logan Stanley’s defensive partners, as Arniel continues to dress Luke Schenn as often as possible without actually putting him on the ice in meaningful situations.

To be fair, with a multi-goal lead for most of the game, Schenn did see more ice time than usual.

To the Jets’ detriment.

Nearly all of the Jets were outchanced due to the defensive shell in the third period, but some players were affected far more than others.

It was essentially two different games depending on whether the Jets’ top four defenders or the bottom pairing were on the ice.

That has quietly been a trend throughout the season.

The Jets’ primary pairs have been positive in most metrics, with the exception of Morrissey-Pionk and any configuration of the third pair.

That is actually impressive given that Winnipeg is one of the most outshot and outchanced teams in the NHL overall.

The team has managed to tread water during the bulk of the minutes with the Samberg-Pionk and Morrissey-DeMelo pairings.

It is when the pairing blender comes out, when injuries occur, or during partial changes that things tend to fall apart.

That tracks intuitively. Morrissey, Samberg, DeMelo, and Pionk form a solid, if imperfect, top four. The issue lies with the rotation of Miller, Stanley, Schenn, and Fleury.

Every team has weaker players on the bottom pair. But the Jets do not have a Samberg-Schmidt type third pairing, where both players can reliably step into top-four minutes when needed.

That is one of the biggest differences compared to last year’s backend.

Luke Schenn and Logan Stanley played smaller roles, even though they were in the lineup. Colin Miller played more regularly, and the Jets were better for it, as was Miller himself.

Ville Heinola is not a top-four calibre defender right now, but he is still better than most of the options the Jets have iced on the third pair this season. There is marginal improvement there, but it matters, especially in puck movement, speed, and offensive capability, ignoring Stanley’s shooting percentage run.

The problem is that Heinola is not big and does not play the so-called third pairing style. Unfortunately, at the NHL level, style often seems to matter more than substance for bottom-pair defenders.

I’ve touched on this before. The league has become much more efficient in identifying and using top-four defenders, but it still lags badly when evaluating the bottom end.

If you want the short version, in the NHL, if you are undersized, you have to be good. Being merely less bad than the alternatives is not enough.

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Microstats Results

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In the end, it was not meant to be.

Winnipeg Jets 3, Edmonton Oilers 4.

What makes this stretch so jarring is where this team was not that long ago. The club that sat at the top of the league last season, even before being significantly weakened at the trade deadline and free agency, now finds itself at the bottom.

An epic collapse only becomes more startling when you realize the Jets have a 1.006 PDO at 5v5.

Yes, that is a PDO above 1.0.

For those new to hockey analytics, PDO is a combination of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. A perfect 1.0 means both the team and their opponents are converting shots at the same rate.

Generally speaking, extreme values tend to regress toward the mean (1.0).

This does not mean all teams should have a true-talent PDO of exactly 1.0. If that were the case, goaltending would be meaningless and finishing talent would not exist.

What it does mean is that when you are far from the mean, you are likely overperforming or underperforming your true talent. Winnipeg being near 1.0 tells us that their goal differential largely matches what their shot differential suggests it should be.

PDO gets its name from the username of the person who popularized it (who unfortunately passed away last year). Brian King noticed that many of the worst front-office decisions came when teams bought high or sold low based on unsustainable on-ice percentages.

The limitation of PDO is that teams can earn extreme values by doing things well or poorly, even though those are often things that are difficult to sustain without also driving play.

Which brings us, awkwardly, back to the Jets.

It is also why it would be a very good idea for Winnipeg to see if Logan Stanley can fetch meaningful value at the trade deadline.

Sure, Stanley looks better to some. But is he, really?

Across his six seasons in Winnipeg, his usage-adjusted expected goal differential per hour this year ranks as his second worst, trailing only 2021-22. His Corsi differential per hour actually ranks third among those six seasons, until you realize that number sits at minus two shots per hour.

That rate is worse than every Jets defenseman this season except Haydn Fleury.

Oh right, this was supposed to be a game recap.

It is not hard to see where Winnipeg stopped playing, or where Edmonton realized who they were playing and decided to push.

That is the beauty of narratives. You can usually bend them to fit whatever you already believe.

Narratives are mixtures facts and emotions.

-Robert Shiller
—Ben Felix
——Garret Hohl
———Michael Scott

Paraphrased.

Is this really who the Jets are? Are they simply too old or too slow for the modern NHL? Or is this a better team than their record suggests, one whose confidence has been beaten into the ground?

Maybe it is all of the above.

Edmonton was the better team. Still, Winnipeg looks marginally better if you acknowledge, once again, that they simply could not hit the net.

Scott Arniel and Kevin Cheveldayoff have talked about getting back to Jets hockey, about restoring aggressive forechecking and defensive structure.

But how much of that is a question of effort and execution, and how much of it is that the personnel can no longer execute it?

The Samberg-DeMelo pair took the brunt of the damage on the scoreboard. They have been vilified more than is fair this season, even if I am not particularly fond of them playing together.

They are competent puck movers for defensemen, but not exceptional ones.

The top line was also on the ice for nearly every even-strength goal against, with one exception that featured Toews instead of Scheifele.

Despite that, there were individuals who played far worse than those five.

Several players simply could not handle the puck at all in this game.

But that is for the section after the paywall.

But before that, here is the same vizual earlier but with the forwards:

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Microstats Results (Game 42)

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But the Winnipeg Jets are making it very hard not to be negative during this slide.

The Winnipeg Jets once again found themselves leading, this time 2-0 against the Vegas Golden Knights, only to have it slip away in overtime.

What makes it even harder to stay “measured” is that the team did not even play well.

Only against Minnesota and Detroit did the Jets actually outchance their opponent by a meaningful margin. Yes, there were games like Ottawa where they had a slight edge, but not nearly enough.

Only three games featured strong finishing. Only two featured strong goaltending.

They have been a mess in almost every dimension.

Nothing is going well.

Which is unfortunate, because the Jets actually were playing well, for the first half:

For the first half of the game, Winnipeg was trading some chances with Vegas.

The shots and chances were limited, but it looked like a respectable defensive game from both teams.

Some might call it boring.

In a matchup of strong defense versus strong defense, the Jets would normally be expected to shine thanks to the goaltending edge. And that is what was happening early, especially with Vegas getting weak netminding.

Then the Jets let up slightly halfway through the game, and Vegas smelled blood.

I can talk analytics endlessly. I can criticize and praise decisions all night.

But none of that matters as much as the health of the players. I really hope Haydn Fleury is okay.

His absence forced the Jets to juggle defensive pairings, which only magnifies the issue of having someone like Luke Schenn on the roster. Arniel clearly feels he needs Schenn, but also clearly does not trust him in important minutes, even when desperate.

I do have to ask though, did the Toews line actually look pretty good, or was that just me?

At least early on, before the team collapsed.

I am not going to defend the signing or the reasoning behind bringing in Jonathan Toews, especially with bonuses tied to games played.

But he has been better lately.

I am not a big fan of Game Score. I find it far inferior to value metrics like synthetic Goals or Goals Above Replacement. Still, all three tend to move in the right direction when a player’s performance improves.

That does not mean Toews is good, let alone worth the $4.75M pace he is on, but it is at least a positive trend.

Of course, the results were still not good.

The entire team collapsed. There is no point singling out individuals when nearly everyone was equally ineffective.

There is good news, Jets fans. It will get better.

I am not Nostradamus, and I have no idea when that will happen, but it has to happen eventually.

Right?

At least there was secondary scoring. Two droughts ended with goals from Perfetti and Schenn. Just a few more to go and we’ll have a team again.

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Microstats Results (Games 41)

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We are nine games into a losing streak, the longest of the Jets 2.0 era and one game away from matching franchise history.

The Winnipeg Jets lost 4-2 to the Ottawa Senators in what was another nail in the proverbial coffin of the 2025-26 season.

A team that won the Presidents’ Trophy what seems like so long ago.

A reader recently asked me how often the Jets beat the Deserve to Win O’Meter last season.

So I asked Peter Tanner, the author of MoneyPuck.com and the DtWO’M.

He said he did not have that data readily available, but this would give similar results:

The 2024-25 Winnipeg Jets won 15 of their 33 games with a sub-50% xGF, a 45% win rate.

The 2025-26 Winnipeg Jets have won only 5 of their first 21 games, a 24% win rate.

…well, now that is 22 games.

The pedantic analyst in me will point out that these are not identical comparisons. Binning continuous data will always make things look more extreme. It is possible that the 2024-25 sub-50% games were closer to 50% on average than those in 2025-26.

What we do know is that the Jets have won fewer games and are on pace for 36% more sub-50% xGoal games than last season.

It is disheartening, and the team is clearly not moving in the right direction. It is also not simply a secondary scoring issue.

In a game where Winnipeg was staring down a record losing streak, in the middle of what has been an embarrassing season so far, and the coach turns to the line blender in desperation, one question stands out:

Why is the one untouchable constant that Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor must always play together?

I am not convinced that splitting them would be anything more than rearranging the chairs on a sinking Titanic, but the status quo is not working.

I understand that the Scheifele-Connor pairing is one of the very few things Winnipeg still has going for it. But it has not been enough. They are not good enough to pull the rest of the roster upward, which makes this the time to try something different.

The same applies to the roster as a whole.

This team has too many passengers, too many anchors, and too many players who, on a competitive team, would be one of the first names fans and analysts point to as a problem.

You can survive with a few of those players. You cannot survive when most of the roster fits that description.

And yes, the Jets’ 5v5 underlying metrics play has improved:

The xGoal graph has been black more often than red lately, and that is a good thing.

The problem is that the team has fallen into PDO hell. The goaltending has not been good enough, and the shooters have not been able to score.

As someone who prioritizes process over results alone, the irony is obvious. The Jets have outchanced opponents more during this losing streak than they did during their early-season hot start.

It still is not enough.

HockeyViz had the Jets at a 32.3% chance of making the playoffs before this loss. I estimate that last night’s results dropped that by roughly six percentage points.

MoneyPuck has them at 13.1%, nearly matching their first overall pick odds of 9.1%.

Evolving-Hockey puts them at just 9.7%.

The time for being satisfied with small improvements in underlying process is over.

The Winnipeg Jets need to do more. Scott Arniel needs to do more. Kevin Cheveldayoff needs to do more.

Bring in youth. Bring in speed. Bring in some sense of purpose to a season that is losing it with every passing loss.

Because what is the value of process improvements when most of the recent outshooting and outchancing has come during minutes where the game was already largely decided?

I am not someone who makes decisions based on PDO. And yes, the team has genuinely been better than it was during the disastrous start to the season.

Still, this is the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winner that has collapsed into last place, potentially for the first time in franchise history.

The Jets are on pace to finish with their second worst xGoal differential per hour and third worst Corsi differential per hour since relocating from Atlanta.

This team needs more than a rotation of aging veterans on the third pair and fourth line.

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Microstats Results (Games 38-40)

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The best (and only, as far as I know) newsletter entirely dedicated to in-depth, evidence-based analysis of all things Winnipeg Jets. If you’re into hockey analytics in general, you’ll find some solid insights here too.

Each edition, we’ll review the past week, preview the week ahead, check in on Jets prospects, and dive into trending topics. Premium subscribers also get access to exclusive microstats updates at the end.

In this second half of our two parter, we look at the Winnipeg Jets’ struggles through an analytical lens.

BAD TEAM AND PREDICTABLY SO

The Jets’ performance this season has been bad.

I’m not going to rehash everything from yesterday, but the team sits near the bottom of the standings and also ranks average to bottom-tier in almost every metric that could reasonably be viewed as a positive sign.

They are a bottom-10 team in both 5v5 xGoal and Corsi differentials (RAPM adjusted). Their 5v5 offensive chance generation is bad, their defensive chance prevention is bad, their penalty kill chance suppression is bad, and their finishing and power play chance generation are merely average.

The one thing the team has largely had going for it is Connor Hellebuyck, and even he has looked mortal since returning:

For context, Hellebuyck has only briefly been above the baseline for smoothed goals against per expected goals, and even then only for a small portion of the season.

This team is bad, and that should not be surprising, because it is built poorly.

A step back last season was both foreseeable and expected.

This is not hindsight. I spoke about this at length last summer. A drop in offense was always coming.

The Jets were coming off one of the best power plays in modern NHL history, driven in large part by a roster with a moderate to low finishing history suddenly converting at elite levels.

They also lost a top-30 5v5 scorer since 2019, relative to ice time, and replaced him with slower, aging veterans who have not scored much in recent seasons.

This image was published days after the Jets signed Gustav Nyquist. At the time, I pointed out that the Jets had only six top-six calibre skaters by results, and only three of those were generating their value primarily through offense.

Those statistics were descriptive, not predictive. In the same article, I also noted that projection models had most of the Jets expected to perform worse than their previous season numbers:

This movement graph looks only at GAR, while the depth chart above combines GAR and xGAR models. Either way, the message is the same.

Most of the Jets were expected to take a step back.

I also noted in that article that I did not expect every Jet to decline by that amount, and that some would improve. But the overall direction and magnitude of the projection were telling.

BAD SCORING AND PREDICTABLY SO

The main topic of conversation surrounding the team has been secondary scoring:

There are more issues than just a lack of secondary scoring, which I will get to later, but scoring outside of the top line is still a problem. It is also one that should have been anticipated.

Aside: This graphic uses older data from more than 10 years ago for standards, when scoring rates were lower than today. That means it actually understates the Jets’ scoring issues. I also split the background thresholds halfway between medians. For example, if median third-line scoring is 1.5 points per 60 and fourth-line scoring is 1.0, the yellow and red split is set at 1.25. This is why the second-line band appears narrow, since second-line scoring often overlaps heavily with top-line scoring. The larger point total gap between top and second lines usually comes from ice time and non-5v5 usage.

The graphic above shows the Jets’ 5v5 scoring rates, with background shading representing how players typically score based on prior seasons.

The Jets arguably have three to four skaters producing at top-line rates. One of them is Morgan Barron, who spent much of the season on the fourth line.

Where it gets truly ugly is that an average NHL team should have nine forwards above the red-yellow split. The Jets have only five.

They are four skaters short of average top-nine scoring.

That is not the benchmark for being a good team or a contender. That is simply league average.

To make matters worse, one of the players scoring at top-nine rates has been a frequent healthy scratch.

And the most important part is that this should have been expected.

The graph above shows the Jets’ 2025-26 5v5 points and compares them to what they would have scored using their 2022-25 scoring rates with the same ice time.

There is constant talk about a lack of scoring, but the Jets’ forward group has produced 142 points this season. Historically, this group would be expected to score about 140.6 points.

In other words, they are almost exactly where they should be.

Yes, some players are scoring well below expectations. At the same time, others are scoring far above what we should reasonably expect going forward.

Put simply, the Jets’ secondary scoring has been poor, but the forward group as a whole is scoring exactly as expected.

Some players have been lucky or very good. Others have been unlucky or ineffective.

And unfortunately, Scheifele and Connor scoring about 50 percent more than normal due largely to a 50 percent increase in on-ice shooting percentage is not a signal of sustainable improvement.

A rebound in secondary scoring likely comes with an equal decline in top-line production.

I say likely, not definitively, because luck does not predict future luck. It simply means the future is unlikely to look exactly the same.

There is also a feedback loop at play. Connor and Scheifele are the only consistent scorers, and the team has trailed frequently, which gives them more prime scoring opportunities, such as offensive-zone faceoffs after icings.

Some of the scoring concentration is therefore both explainable and expected.

THIS TEAM NEEDS MORE THAN A PIECE OR TWO

Weighted GAR combines Evolving-Hockey’s GAR and xGAR models. It is more descriptive than predictive, measuring how much a player has contributed to winning within their environment rather than how sustainable that performance is.

It is also an aggregate stat, so strong play in limited ice time looks closer to replacement level, as does poor play in limited minutes.

For a more forward-looking model, we can look at sG from HockeyViz:

Neither model is perfect. Usually the truth lies somewhere between them, though not always.

Understanding how each model is built and what it emphasizes allows you to weight them differently depending on context.

For simplicity, I took an agnostic approach and split the difference in a very unscientific way.

That result looks about right.

If you wanted to build a competitive NHL forward group, it would look something like this:

New Guy — Mark Scheifele — New Guy
Kyle Connor — New Guy — New Guy
Morgan Barron — Adam Lowry — Gabe Vilardi
Cole Perfetti — Vlad Namestnikov — Gustav Nyquist
Nino Niederreiter / Alex Iafallo

Some regression and puck luck could push players like Perfetti, Barron, Lowry, and Nyquist upward. But that same regression will pull others down.

This is not a roster missing a single secondary scoring piece.

This is a forward group missing three to four top-six calibre skaters, depending on how optimistic you are about someone like Perfetti rebounding.

The defense is struggling as well, but to a lesser degree. Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, and Dylan Samberg form three-quarters of a defensive core you can win with.

The models are mixed on Neal Pionk. One suggests he is being carried, while another still sees him as a legitimate top-four defender.

Regardless, the Jets have out-chanced and out-scored opponents with any combination of 44-2, 44-4, 54-4, and 54-2 on the ice.

Their top-four defense is not the main problem.

The issue lies lower in the lineup.

Logan Stanley is likely good enough for a third-pairing role, even if suboptimal, but only if his partner is strong. Luke Schenn is not that partner. Colin Miller was last season, but has not been this year… not that he’s been given much of a shot.

A DECISION TO BE MADE

The Jets have a flawed roster with some good players who can, and have, fit on contending teams.

The question is what to do with that reality.

From my perspective, there are three paths.

RETOOL ON THE FLY

The Jets do have usable pieces.

An optimist would say they need two bona fide top-six forwards. A realist would say they need three or four top-nine players, with at least two being top-six calibre.

I fall somewhere in between.

The numbers matter, but current models likely understate how much a rising tide can lift everyone.

The problem is acquiring those players.

There is some future value on the Moose, but there is no Ehlers or Connor ready to step in and dominate immediately.

The Jets’ trade capital is limited, and most of it is tied up in their best players. There is also very little ready-made help on the farm.

That means finding undervalued players the market has missed, similar to Mathieu Perreault or Nikolaj Ehlers at their peaks.

Those players tend to cost less than their impact.

Finding them is difficult. Increased analytical adoption across the NHL has made these inefficiencies harder to exploit, meaning you have to develop those players internally.

SCORCHED EARTH REBUILD

The Jets could move their best players and start over.

Some veterans could be retained for continuity, but this would acknowledge that the core must change.

Trading depth pieces like Schenn, Koepke, Pearson, Namestnikov, Iafallo, Stanley, and Fleury will not return meaningful draft or prospect capital.

Many rebuilds also fail because teams rebuild poorly. They keep the wrong players, move the wrong ones, surround prospects with poor fits, and fail at development.

There is risk in a full rebuild. But waiting too long can simply prolong the inevitable is another risk.

A HYBRID YOUTH SHIFT AND RETOOL

The Jets have an elite goalie, a capable top line, and a solid top-four defense.

The team is old, slow, and struggle to move the puck, but much of that stems from the roster below their top 7 players and Hellebuyck.

The team could avoid a full rebuild while shifting toward youth.

Brad Lambert is likely not a top-six forward right now, but in limited minutes he has been better than many veterans who were expected to struggle.

He is faster, younger, and has been less bad in the same role.

Move out players like Schenn and Pearson. Trade them if possible. Waive them if not.

Sometimes the biggest improvements come from stacking small, marginal gains.

The loss of Ehlers hurt the Jets more than just his individual performance suggests.

Incremental improvements can lift the entire roster.

Start bringing up the Moose players and see what sticks.

Lambert et al may not be good enough, but we know the alternatives are not good enough.

From there, continue looking for the right players elsewhere. Work the waiver wire. Make small “hockey” trades. Try things, and move on quickly when they fail.

I understand the emotional and loyalty side of this. I also understand that TNSE leans on loyalty to counter the (unreasonable) negative stigma of playing in Winnipeg.

But probably do not trade draft capital for rentals. Look instead for young players with term or team protection who can grow with the roster.

The season is not over, but the status quo is letting it drift away.

This team does not need one secondary scorer. It needs much more than that.

A QUESTION FOR MARK CHIPMAN AND KEVIN CHEVELDAYOFF

So the question for Chipman, Cheveldayoff, and the rest of the organization is this:

What do you want the Jets to be?

Do you want to try to contend again with most of this core, or accept short-term pain for long-term success?

Will flashes of good play convince you the team is closer than it really is?

And do you fully understand the mistakes, biases, and miscalculations that brought the team to this point?

MICROSTATS UPDATES

Before getting into individual player results, this is where the microstats help fill in the gaps left by the larger trends above. Goals and shot totals tell us what happened. Microstats start to explain how and why.

Some patterns have stabilized, others are quietly drifting in the wrong direction, and a few players look very different once usage and context are accounted for. This section is about separating signal from noise and understanding what’s actually driving the Jets’ play beneath the surface.

If you wish to support the site and get access to my manually tracked microstats, feel free to upgrade to the paid subscriber level. If you are unable to financially support for one reason or the other, I understand but you can also support the site by sharing this article and future ones to your friends!

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The best (and only, as far as I know) newsletter entirely dedicated to in-depth, evidence-based analysis of all things Winnipeg Jets. If you’re into hockey analytics in general, you’ll find some solid insights here too.

Each edition, we’ll review the past week, preview the week ahead, check in on Jets prospects, an…

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It was another round of moral victories:

The team did play well, but as mentioned last recap, in a season that is slowly running out of runway, the Jets are running out of time for moral victories.

The Jets have now lost back-to-back games despite holding a slight edge in MoneyPuck’s Deserve to Win O’Meter.

That doesn’t mean a whole lot at this point.

These were not dominant performances where the Jets imposed their will on the opposition. They were in the games, they created chances, and they created more chances than their opponents, but this was not the Jets dictating play the way they often did last season.

This also is not yet a trend.

The NHL has a high degree of parity. Bad teams compete with good teams all the time. This group does not yet resemble the 2017-18 Jets who struggled early before flipping a switch and becoming a contender.

We have seen this team outplay opponents in spurts before.

As noted earlier, the Jets are running out of runway.

They are now just five games away from the halfway mark of the season and sit second last in points percentage league-wide. While Scott Arniel can talk about process, and while outshooting and outchancing good teams is part of a sound process, that alone does not guarantee the Jets will become a team where that identity is consistent rather than fleeting.

This team’s seasonal underlying metrics are worse than its 5v5 goal differential. Yes, Connor Hellebuyck is often an xGoal-to-goal differential shifter, but there is only so much one goalie can do.

There is also the possibility that things get worse.

Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele are both pacing above three points per 60 minutes at 5v5. The broadcast highlighted that as a positive, and it is.

Sustainable, it may not be.

That pace represents roughly a 50 percent increase over their career averages of about two points per 60, and a full half point above either player’s previous career best.

Much of this has been driven by a 15 percent on-ice shooting percentage, compared to career norms around 10 percent. That means the Jets are scoring on 15 percent of shots with Connor and Scheifele on the ice at 5v5, a 50 percent jump over historical levels.

That includes shots taken by their linemates, usually Gabriel Vilardi but also Alex Iafallo and Gustav Nyquist, as well as the nine defensemen who have shared the ice with them.

You can argue finishing talent or shot selection, but the highest career on-ice shooting percentage among players with at least 4,000 minutes at 5v5 is Robert Thomas at 10.9 percent.

The Jets did play well overall, though much of that advantage came from a lopsided special teams opportunity split.

HockeyViz has the Jets outchancing the Oilers 3.9 expected goals to 2.0, but the special teams differential was 1.1 to 0.4. At 5v5, that shrinks to roughly 2.1 to 1.6, which most often results in a 2-2 game.

The Jets were good. They just were not good enough.

The top line created enough chances to normally expect two goals with average finishing talent, yet failed to score. That happens sometimes.

It has not happened often this season, but it will.

With heavy power play usage and the Jets either tied or trailing most of the game, the top line and Josh Morrissey were leaned on heavily.

The lone goal came from the Lowry line, which for once was not second among forwards in ice time.

Once again, Arniel’s primary offensive adjustment was to shuffle two forwards on the non-Scheifele and non-Lowry lines.

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Microstats Results

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However, they lost once again.

In a season that is slowly running out of runway, the Jets are running out of time for moral victories.

Similar to last game, I’m a bit limited on time.

I got back into Vancouver late last night, and by the time the girls were in bed and I was tracking the game, it was already 10 PM my time.

Weekly review will be sent out tomorrow.

As mentioned above, the Jets had some strong performances and some good moments. Generally speaking, they carried the bulk of the play. The overall flow of shots and chances was in Winnipeg’s favour.

Minnesota clawed back mostly in short spurts, like early in the first period and the back half of the third.

That’s still a problem. The Jets can’t seem to close out games. I don’t mean that in a “narrative created from randomness” sense we often see. I mean the Jets are simply not good enough to afford taking their foot off the pedal.

I didn’t really have anything to say about this image other than to laugh at how close the Jets were to winning that game.

Gustav Nyquist did not have a good game, both in performance and luck. He scored what would have been his first goal of the season, only for it to be taken back due to Nino Niederreiter being offside. He also had some blatant turnovers and hit the post.

Nyquist is better than many of the Jets’ players on the bottom three lines, but that says less about him and more about the bleak state of the roster.

Everyone is going to call me biased because of how I spoke about Nikolaj Ehlers the past few seasons, but I think we’re seeing how his impact was greater than the sum of his parts.

Adam Lowry is a decent hockey player, but he plays a very particular style of game. It’s a low-offense-for-everyone approach. He eats minutes so that the non-Lowry minutes are what ultimately decide whether the team wins or loses.

The Mark Scheifele line has its fair share of warts, but many of them have been masked this year by the line scoring on roughly 50 percent more shots than they do historically.

Aside: how bad would things be for the Jets if they weren’t getting a bit lucky offensively there?

They are good, but they are not among the best top lines in the league.

All of this means that the non-Lowry middle-six line is far more important to Winnipeg than it is for most NHL teams. Having a player who scored at a top-15 pace from 2018 to 2025 on that line drove a lot of the Jets’ success, beyond what you’d expect from a typical middle-six forward or WAR models alone.

The only good news is that Ehlers best years are behind him, so the Jets’ haven’t lost the same level of player to the Hurricanes. They just have that sized hole in their roster.

So who even are the Jets’ top and bottom lines?

The Lowry line has been given the second most ice time of any line in all but two of the last 10-plus games.

Did you know that? The Lowry line is effectively the Jets’ second line. The Vlad Namestnikov and Jonathan Toews lines have been deployed as the third and fourth lines, respectively.

That’s where things stand for the Winnipeg Jets. That’s why the team lives and dies by whether the Scheifele line scores enough goals.

Please share this post with friends and like the ones you really appreciate. It helps me understand what resonates and refine what I focus on.

And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

Microstats Results

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Sorry. Not funny. Needed levity.

Anyways, it was a near comeback, but ultimately the team that created the most chances ended up winning.

I’m going to keep this one fairly quick. Sorry.

I didn’t watch this game live, as I was picking up my wife and kids returning from visiting family. I watched the game later that night once everyone had settled down, tracking it for the paid subscriber microstats data.

I’ll have an additional post coming Tuesday or Wednesday with a broader update on individual and team performance.

Back to this game.

The HockeyViz data looked a bit strange at first glance, with very few high-quality chances showing up in the third period. Looking over at MoneyPuck helped contextualize it.

The shots were there, but most of them were low quality.

The Jets struggled to penetrate the slot and spent a lot of time working the perimeter without turning that possession into meaningful chances.

Some players had good games. Some did not.

The Nyquist experiment on the top line lasted all of one period, which I suppose counts as a sample size.

It’s not that Nyquist is a bad player. He’s just not remotely a first-line forward. On an average team, he’s a third liner with some second power play and penalty kill usage.

The bigger issue is that the Jets simply do not have enough talent to properly fill out their middle-six. The same can be said for the bottom defensive pair, recent Logan Stanley shooting adventures aside.

Please share this post with friends and like the ones you really appreciate. It helps me understand what resonates and refine what I focus on.

And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

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What hurts Winnipeg’s case even more is that many of these losses follow the same script: the Jets are consistently outshot, outchanced, and outpossessed.

This has become a familiar problem.

I keep coming back to these shot maps and chance charts, and every time I do, the same thought pops up. Then I double-check myself and see that the Jets are eighth in the league in shots on net per attempt.

So either I’m falling victim to confirmation bias, or the Jets are uniquely bad at having their best chances miss the net or get blocked.

One way or another, this is not the first time I’ve seen a graph like this and thought the same thing.

The start of the game was sleepy. There is always a danger of hindsight narratives, but it’s hard to ignore that the Jets themselves have talked a lot lately about slow starts. Early in the season, the issue was falling asleep in the second period.

Interestingly enough, t’s been the ends of periods, particularly the first and third, where things tend to unravel.

Once again, the Jets looked outclassed. And everyone is searching for “the reason,” as if there’s a single lever to pull that would suddenly fix everything.

The more uncomfortable truth is probably simpler: this is who they are. The Jets are just not that good.

Yes, there are inefficiencies. Yes, there are things they could clean up around the edges. I’ve pointed out several of them before:

But we’re getting close to the point where it feels less like problem-solving and more like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Speaking of rearranging chairs.

Last game, I questioned the continued usage of Luke Schenn. Schenn is not very good. At all.

The thing is, Scott Arniel clearly knows this.

Schenn consistently plays limited minutes. He plays significantly less than his defensive partner, forcing Arniel to shuffle the remaining five defenders throughout the game. His minutes are sheltered: weaker competition, fewer high-leverage situations, very little late-period usage, and minimal defensive-zone responsibility.

Arniel is afraid to play Schenn when he dresses Schenn.

But he also seems afraid not to dress Schenn.

Murat Ates asked Arniel this far more politely than I would have, and Arniel answered accordingly:

My response to this was the following:

My general opinion on NHL coaches: they are experts at knowing what matters and who is best at that.

I also believe that due to being merely human and not machines they fall to biases, improperly weight tradeoffs of different factors, and miss the forest for the trees.

Is physicality and size good? Yes. Arniel gets that.

Is Schenn good at physicallity and is he big? Yes. Arniel gets that.

Does Schenn being good at that make up for his failings elsewhere? The results consistently suggest very much no, and not even close.

Arniel hides Schenn. A lot. So Arniel is not someone who is stupid and doesn’t know how good/bad Schenn is.

He views that the team needs certain traits, and so he is placing someone with those traits on the roster.

Unfortunately it’s not worked out in goals, shots, or chances.

And that’s where Arniel and I diverge.

If you have to hide someone from meaningful minutes and from good players and from dzone draws, and even then still get out scored, out shot, and out chanced... and mostly from his side.

Then how is the things you want actually helping.

This game was another example.

Look again at the ice time distributions and who played with whom. The Jets were struggling to score, being outplayed, and searching for a solution.

The solution? Swap Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi.

And this isn’t new.

Look at Mark Scheifele’s linemates this season.

Scheifele is always with Kyle Connor. He is almost always with Vilardi. If not Vilardi, then Iafallo, with the rare exception of a few shifts with Nino Niederreiter.

It is never Cole Perfetti.

Perfetti averages more ice time than Iafallo. So why is it never him? Why is it a player who occasionally ends up on the fourth line when the roster is healthy the one called upon?

My hypothesis for both the Schenn usage and the Scheifele linemates are the same. It’s the same reason Winnipeg resisted playing Nikolaj Ehlers on the top line except when injuries forced it, even though the results were often better when those injuries did force it.

It’s the same reason why some players are sent to the minors despite outperforming those that remain on the roster.

There is an organizational fundamental belief that teams need specific players in specific roles to succeed. There is a “right way” to build lines, a “right way” to construct a roster, and a “right way” to play.

And this season feels like death by a thousand cuts born from that belief.

The Jets are not alone in this. The NHL is a proud copycat league, which is itself evidence of how often teams fall prey to confirmation bias, anchoring, and pattern-seeking in randomness.

Hockey can be summed up pretty simply: the better team will win more often, but not always. Anything can happen, but that does not mean everything is equally likely.

Yes, I’m the numbers nerd. I know I already drain some of the joy out of the game by overanalyzing it. That’s why I try to balance it out elsewhere.

Logan Stanley can still be a bad hockey player who has likely cost the Jets wins (and better players) over the years. And I can still enjoy the fact that he’s doubled his career NHL goal total in less than half a season.

Both things can be true.

But at the end of the day, there is a real problem with how this team is built and deployed.

The people in charge are not idiots. Kevin Cheveldayoff, Scott Arniel, and company understand hockey at a high level. But so does everyone else in the NHL.

The Paradox of Skill goes like this:

…in activities where skill and luck define outcomes, as skill improves, luck becomes more important in determining outcomes.

Luck… and avoiding mistakes.

In a league full of smart, capable people, avoiding mistakes and avoiding bias is often what separates true contenders from teams that scrape together a few playoff rounds over a decade.

On that uplifting note…

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And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

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Well, not actually…

It wasn’t another dominant performance against a top team in the league, but it was a fun game and the Jets almost won.

The Winnipeg Jets were inches away from beating the Ottawa Senators in regulation, only to lose in overtime after Ottawa tied things up with the goalie pulled and then scored again after some back-and-forth action in overtime.

The Winnipeg Jets were really close to winning.

Like, really close.

If you squint your eyes and look very closely at the grey line just before Ottawa scored their second goal, you can see a single pixel gap between the Jets’ expected standings points and the 2.0 point line.

While the loss of a point may be a tad heartbreaking, overall this is the second game in a row where the Jets were competitive and did not get outclassed in the outchancing department.

The Winnipeg Jets did pretty okay, provided you ignore the back-to-back penalty kills in the first period. While Ottawa did not score on either, they were able to produce quite a few shots and chances.

Winnipeg was able to make up for that on their lone power play of the period, creating a pile of chances without any scoring.

If we are looking at 5v5 only, the Jets did outchance the Senators:

The performance of the roster was a mixed bag. Some lines and pairs outchanced their matchups, and some did not.

I do want to go over matchups.

Ottawa shuffled their lines a bit in the third period, so the linematching data is somewhat messy.

But essentially, the Jets split Lowry and Scheifele fairly evenly against the Stützle line, with Lowry outshooting and Scheifele being outshot. The rest of the time, the Scheifele line was being outshot by the Giroux line, while the Lowry line was being outshot by the Cozens line.

The Namestnikov line saw a bit of everyone and performed well as long as Stützle was not on the ice. Meanwhile, the Toews line lost their primary matchup in the fourth line versus fourth line battle, but did well against most other opponents in short bursts.

What intrigued me was that the Samberg-Pionk pairing, which normally takes on the toughest matchups, actually saw more of the Cozens line, mostly with the Lowry line. It was the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing that played primarily against Ottawa’s top-six forwards.

Looking at the deployment more broadly, it appears Arniel was focused on keeping certain forward lines paired with specific defense pairs, while also controlling shift starts.

The Samberg-Pionk pairing was heavily deployed in the defensive zone, while the Stanley-Schenn pair did not start a single shift in the defensive zone.

In fact, Schenn was once again sat for a large chunk of the game, giving Stanley additional shifts with DeMelo and Pionk.

At under ten minutes of 5v5 ice time, one really has to ask why Schenn even plays.

The thing is, Arniel clearly knows he should not trust Schenn. Schenn barely plays. When he does, it is against the weakest opponents, with mostly neutral zone starts, and when the game is not on the line.

I do not understand why Arniel simultaneously believes Schenn must play while also being afraid to play him.

Wah, wah, wah. Schenn is bad. We all know that. It does not make sense.

But it is strange that Arniel also seems to agree.

I do not have much to analyze from this image other than two things:

1. I like the new colour scheme.

2. Winnipeg needs to learn to hit. the. net!

Anyways, on to the microstats…

And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

Microstats Results

In case you missed it, I recently published a large write-up on the Jets’ microstats performance so far this season for paid subscribers:

If you want to learn more about what the microstats suggest regarding the Jets’ performance this year, relative to ice time and compared to last season, you can join the paid tier while helping support the blog.

Now, onto the microstats for this game:

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The best (and only, as far as I know) newsletter entirely dedicated to in-depth, evidence-based analysis of all things Winnipeg Jets. If you’re into hockey analytics in general, you’ll find some solid insights here too.

Each edition, we’ll review the past week, preview the week ahead, check in on Jets prospects, and dive into trending topics. Premium subscribers also get access to exclusive microstats updates at the end.

This week we look at our normal updates on the Jets’ performance as a team, as well as the Moose and prospects. We also have a LARGE update on microstats and some deep dives there for our paid subscribers.

JETS SEASON PERFORMANCE

STANDARD METRICS

The Winnipeg Jets have now played 31 games, and their record after that stretch sits at 15-15-1. That ranks them 27th in the standings, one spot down from the last review. Their 0.500 point percentage bumps them up slightly, but still leaves them at 27th.

After a strong start to the season, the Winnipeg Jets’ goal differential has fallen to zero, which is fairly average, and largely in line with expectations.

Looking at performance within the Central Division, the Jets are tied with the St. Louis Blues for sixth in points. They are tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for fifth in points percentage, and sit alone in fifth place in goal differential.

While finishing in the top three of the Central looks unlikely, the Jets could still sneak into one of the Wild Card spots.

UNDERLYING METRICS

Relative to ice time, the Jets’ all-situations Goal +/- sits 16th at -0.01 goals per hour (score and venue adjusted). There are some signs here that the team has underperformed its Pythagorean expectations.

In simpler terms, if the Jets continue outscoring opponents at this rate, they would likely profile as a Wild Card team in a 1–16 playoff format… is what I said last year…

However, as the goal differential continues to fall, that projection looks less and less convincing.

Breaking it down further:

• Shot Quantity: 22nd (down two)

• Shot Quality: 13th (down nine)

• Finishing: 13th (up six)

• Goaltending: 16th (down three)

Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)

RAPM adjusts for team strength and opponent quality:

• 5v5 Goal Differential: 12th (up eight)

• 5v5 xGoal Differential: 28th (down one)

• 5v5 Corsi Differential: 26th (up one)

Long story short, the Jets are a significantly below-average team when combining shot quality and shot quantity. Finishing and goaltending have lifted them to slightly above average at 5v5 in actual goal differential.

Their power play has been decent, ranking sixth in goals per hour. However, their penalty kill continues to drag the team down, ranking 23rd in goals against per hour.

HockeyViz sG

This HockeyViz model isolates player and team impact as well while also incorporating blocked shots, schedule effects, and coaching.

Red/orange-brown means more than league average (good for offense, bad for defense), while blue/purple means less than league average (good for defense, bad for offense).

5v5 Offense: Has improved ever-so-slightly, due to a small uptick of shots right in front of the opponents’ goalies.

Power Play: This has improved ever so slightly, driven by a small uptick in shots coming from directly in front of opposing goaltenders.

Finishing: Finishing has seen a small improvement recently, likely aided by a boost in secondary scoring in the last game.

5v5 Defense: Similar to 5v5 offense, there has been improvement here as well. In fact, the Jets are now close to league average.

Penalty Kill: Like the power play, this has seen a steady decline. Unlike the power play, it was never particularly strong to begin with.

Goaltending: Connor Hellebuyck has returned, and not a moment too soon. The Jets have only completed one season in the Hellebuyck era with worse goaltending results than this.

THE BIG PICTURE

I think we’ve now truly seen how good this team is, and how reliant it is, without Connor Hellebuyck.

Don’t get me wrong, the Jets played poorly in a large chunk of games. You don’t land in the bottom ten for both 5v5 RAPM Corsi and xGoals without some really embarrassing performances.

Still, recent Connor Hellebuyck levels represent roughly a one-goal head start per game. That’s significant, and it translates into quite a few additional wins even with sub-par team effort and execution.

The team is still slow, still old, and still poor at puck management and transition. But they have Hellebuyck, and he’s really, really good.

PROSPECT RECAP

MANITOBA MOOSE

The Manitoba Moose have gone 2-2 since the last update. Interestingly enough, nearly all of those games featured fairly lopsided scorelines, regardless of the outcome.

The Moose now sit second in the Central Division after a very cold start to the season. The Chicago Wolves still have a better points-percentage pace, but the Moose are closing that gap.

Another interesting note is that the Moose have been strong in net, posting the eighth-best save percentage in the league, while ranking 28th in shooting percentage.

Is that poor shooting percentage a skill issue? Bad puck luck? Systems? Or some mixture of all three?

I admittedly got tired of taking the time to add all of the “advanced” stats like 5v5 goal share and GameScore. Those two metrics are just not that telling given how heavily usage and puck luck can impact them.

Even point scoring can be heavily usage-biased, but it’s still much more fun to go over and takes far less effort for me to update the tables above. Maybe I’ll bring them back for the end of the season.

Anyways, here are updates from the past four games:

• David Gustafsson: passes Duehr for first on the team after three assists

• Mason Shaw: two goals and two assists, and almost all of his scoring is 5v5 by the way

• Walker Duehr: a goal and two assists

• Brayden Yager: one assist

• Phil Di Giuseppe: one goal

• Samuel Fagemo: no change

• Jaret Anderson-Dolan: two goals

• Parker Ford: one assist

• Ville Heinola: flying up the rankings with four assists

• Kale Clague: also flying, with two goals and an assist

• Brad Lambert: scored a goal

• Danny Zhilkin: one assist

• Isaak Phillips: one goals

• Elias Salomonsson: no change, but only played two games

• Colby Barlow: no change

• Nikita Chibrikov: no change

• Fabian Wagner: did not play

• Tyrel Bauer: no change

OTHER PROSPECTS

As mentioned earlier, scoring and other models can be heavily impacted by usage. However, when we’re talking about non-pro prospects, most are top players on their team, which helps level the playing field for more apples-to-apples comparisons.

Here’s the scoring since we last met:

• Kieron Walton: 4 GP, 3 G, 5 A… I ranked him above He, but Walton is really making a case for himself

• Kevin He: 5 GP, 1 G, 2 A

• Zachary Nehring: two games with no scoring for Nehring

• Jacob Cloutier: 4 GP, 2 A

• Edison Engle: 4 GP, 1 A

• Garrett Brown: 4 GP, 1 G, 1 A

• Connor Levis: 2 GP, 1 G

• Owen Martin: 6 GP, 4 G, 3 A… yes, he basically doubled his totals the last six games

• Viktor Klingsell: only one SHL league game (but plenty of other games and practices)

• Sascha Boumedienne: no points

• Markus Loponen: 4 GP, 1 A

• Alfons Freij: point alert, again! one more assist in only one more game played… keep that rate up and Freij will be flying

AFTER THOUGHTS

I was feeling ill over the past few days, so I’m not going to do a mailbag or in-depth analysis for the public section this time.

Instead, I’m going to take my time and focus on updating the microstats at the end of this article behind the paywall for premium subscribers.

I want to really dig in and provide value to those who support the site, as it is genuinely appreciated. I thank you very kindly.

On the personal side, there isn’t all that much to report.

My children remain walking petri dishes of disease. We did go to a Santa lunch with the girls, though, and that was great fun.

I’ll be keeping things low key over the Christmas break with family, as I’ll be flying out for around two weeks with business in Montreal. Fun stuff.

My workouts have been few and far between lately. It’s a bit disappointing, but that’s kind of what happens when you have kids who sap all your time and energy. It’s worth it, and I’m still working out enough to stay healthy. Just not enough to be pushing the heavy weights that get people in the gym watching me, except on bench… which no one would ever be impressed by.

That’s sort of been my focus lately though: health. I’ve been spending more time thinking about things that hopefully impact both my lifespan and health span.

Lifespan is about how long you live. Health span is more about the quality of life during that time.

Not that much has changed in practice. I still try to eat well, just at a much lower body weight than when I was lifting heavy. I’ve dropped about 40 pounds. I still try to sleep well, although children and this blog tend to destroy that. And I still try to stay active, though I’m trying to diversify that activity a bit more.

Random pointless teaser: I’ve had an idea for something I want to try this summer for the site, if possible. We’ll see if I can find the time to make it happen.

Anyways, that’s my personal update. Now onto the nitty gritty microstats.

MICROSTATS UPDATES

Well, I have caught up with all the games I missed during my last business trip. Technically, I caught up a week and a half ago, but sickness really derailed my plans.

So, without further ado, here are the microstats performances for the Winnipeg Jets, now shown relative to ice time so we can start comparing across roles and also against last season’s performance.

Prepare. It’s a long one.

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They won against a good team.

They won against a good team in a pretty dominant fashion.

They won against a good team in a pretty dominant fashion, both on the scoreboard and in the underlying numbers.

They won against a good team in a pretty dominant fashion, both on the scoreboard and in the underlying numbers, and with secondary scoring and solid special teams.

Oh, and Connor Hellebuyck is back.

Not much more you could ask for in a single game.

All is right and well in Jets land. Like I said, there is not much more you could ask for.

At the first intermission, I posted on social media that the Jets’ first period was one of their best of the season.

They were leading 2-0, HockeyViz had them ahead 1.1 to 0.3 in expected goals, and the penalty kill executed extremely well.

One Washington fan who follows me quoted the post and joked that things would likely improve, since there is a low probability that a team follows one of its best periods of the season with an equally strong performance.

Then the Jets went out and outscored the Capitals 2-0 in the second period, with a 1.1 to 0.4 edge in HockeyViz’s xGoals. They even created more scoring chances while shorthanded than they allowed.

The third period was going just as smoothly until the Jets gave Washington a 5v3 with about five minutes remaining.

The Capitals did score and generated a flurry of chances, but the game was effectively over at that point. It only cost Hellebuyck the shutout.

Speaking of which, the king is back.

While Winnipeg was clearly the better team, Washington was not without chances. The Capitals generated roughly 2.3 xGoals by HockeyViz, 1.85 by MoneyPuck, and 2.55 by Evolving Hockey.

No matter which model you prefer, Connor Hellebuyck stopped more pucks than an average goaltender would be expected to. Per Evolving Hockey, that only happened four times in the twelve games the Jets played without him.

Scott Arniel can say the Jets need to play better in front of all goalies, and he is right. But the goaltending performance without Hellebuyck was also significantly below standard.

Speaking of standards…

How were Luke Schenn, and to a lesser extent Logan Stanley, outchanced that badly in a rout like this?

MoneyPuck had Washington generating 1.13 expected goals at 5v5, with 0.74 of that coming with Logan Stanley on the ice. Stanley finished around 47 percent in xGoals, Schenn around 45 percent.

By comparison, Neal Pionk was at 63 percent, while the other three defenders were all in the 80s.

I do not understand why Luke Schenn keeps playing. I understand why the team thinks he should play, but I do not understand how those reasons are believed to outweigh everything else when it so clearly and consistently hurts the team.

And to be clear, Logan Stanley is not great. He is better than in previous seasons, but much of that is driven by scoring luck and the fact that he looks relatively strong compared to Schenn and Haydn Fleury.

Speaking of Stanley’s goals.

Before this season, Logan Stanley scored five goals on 7.92 expected goals.

This season, he has scored five goals on 1.70 expected goals.

Anyways, that is enough criticism for what was, by nearly every measure, a strong game from most of the roster.

The lines are close to perfect for what this team has available.

Elevating Morgan Barron is a good move. He has arguably been one of the Jets’ six best forwards this season while being limited to fourth line usage.

I also think Nino Niederreiter gives the Namestnikov line what it needs if there is not a true speed-driven game breaker on the second line. He wins puck battles and provides real net-front presence.

Also, congratulations to Nino on game number 1,000.

I do wonder if Josh Morrissey’s ice time was related to health. In my microstats tracking, he has been slower retrieving dump-ins and has lost more of those races than usual.

Once the game tilted heavily in Winnipeg’s favor, Arniel started mixing pairs. Samberg and Stanley took shifts with DeMelo that would normally go to Morrissey, and Stanley also played a few shifts with Pionk.

It may have been score effects, a desire to shelter Schenn, or simply spreading minutes.

Still, Morrissey did not take a single shift after the 17:48 mark of the third period, while all five other defenders played multiple shifts.

And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

Microstats Results

I am almost done my large midseason microstats update. It was supposed to come out last Thursday, then I got very sick. Not ideal, but I am feeling much better now.

The only issue is that new games shift the numbers slightly. The general conclusions do not change, but the visuals and commentary need updating.

It should be out tomorrow. Thanks for your patience, and apologies for my children functioning as mobile disease vectors.

Here are the microstats for this game:

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