Ehlers and Hellebuyck have arrived, Jets dominate
Winnipeg Jets win 4-0 in game two against Dallas Stars
The Winnipeg Jets beat the Dallas Stars 4–0 in Game 2 of their second-round series in the NHL playoffs, led by two players exorcising some playoff-reputation demons: Connor Hellebuyck and Nikolaj Ehlers.
Another late game, but I’m trudging through to get you the recap in time!
Winnipeg Jets 4 - Dallas Stars 0
The Jets started fast, helped along by some unwise stick work from Dallas.
Josh Morrissey’s early pressure drew a high-sticking penalty, and since it drew blood, it became a double minor. While the Jets’ power play has been weak this postseason, they did convert on the second half of the man advantage.
Morrissey made a smart play — maintaining possession under pressure at the line and dishing to Ehlers in the high slot. Ehlers hit the post (ping) and Gabriel Vilardi buried the rebound. 1–0 Jets.
Aside, it’s nice to once again see the dynamic, always shifting, power play we all enjoyed and dominated the regular season.
Next up: Ehlers made a blind pass in front of the net while looking toward the point, and it bounced off a Dallas defender’s skate to Mark Scheifele. 2–0 Jets.
Later, the Jets’ improved third pairing transitioned the puck smoothly, generating zone time and tiring out the Stars. The fourth line made a quick change, and the Lowry line came out. They kept grinding, kept cycling — and after a point shot with Lowry screening in front, a rebound ended up in the net. 3–0 Jets.
Finally, with the goalie pulled, Dallas pressed. But Ehlers boxed out his check, won the puck, and fired it straight into the empty net. 4–0.
What these scoring plays don’t fully capture is that Connor Hellebuyck stopped multiple high-danger, high-leverage chances from Dallas. It was a fantastic night from the Jets’ — and maybe the league’s — MVP.
Helle could say:
The Jets were about even in unblocked shots expected goals, but led in the Corsi battle and the Scorsi battle.
The Jets newly formed third pair seemed to be exactly the kind of thing Winnipeg needed to open the throttle and put pressure on the Stars. Dallas’ defenders aside from Harley (and the injured Heiskanen) aren’t the greatest with the puck. Jets’ quick breakouts and regrouping created waves of attack and the sustained pressure eventually broke the Stars’ creating a few chances, and eventually the Lowry goal.
I also find it interesting that Scott Arniel actually trusted the Jets’ third pair in the defensive zone, something he’s been highly reluctant this post-season… especially with Logan Stanley.
Winnipeg Jets Playoff Performance Credit
The basic idea is that a “quality performance” (from the goalie or skaters) was a game where the other party only had to perform at a league-average level to win.
The rest breaks down as:
Team Win: both had quality performances
Goalie Steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the goalie
Skater Steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the skaters
Team Loss: team loses without any quality performance
Goalie Loss: team loses despite a quality skater performance
Skater Loss: team loses despite a quality goalie performance
A shutout is always a quality goalie start (unless, somehow, the other team has 0 shots). The Jets also scored three non-empty-net goals while allowing only two expected goals against.
Altogether a good game, and a fun one to watch.
Winnipeg Jets 5v5 Stats
Series
Quick stat explainer:
Corsi = all shot attempts (goals, saves, misses, blocks), correlates with puck possession and is predictive.
xGoals (expected goals) = all unblocked attempts, weighted by shot quality, more directly correlates with scoring.
Weighted Shots = like Corsi but weights goals more heavily, while regressing toward expected value, most predictive.
“The Big Four” forwards have been the Jets’ best players and are the only forwards fully in the positive for weighted shots.
It’s still early — one or two games — so small sample caveats apply. But I’d like to see more Jets players driving the play.
Haydn Fleury had a solid game, by both the eye test and the shot metrics. I’m curious to see how he continues alongside Miller.
Playoffs
The Lowry line was strong against the physical Blues and Perfetti stood out last round. But those four have struggled in Dallas.
Thankfully, Ehlers and the top line picked up the pace — this is exactly why teams need to diversify their “not scoring” risk.
Similarly, the Samberg pairing was excellent vs. St. Louis, and Samberg’s continued dominance vs. Dallas has stood out. His results so far have been very positive.
And now for something completely different (not exactly different but I love Python quotes)…
