Game 05 Analytical Recap: Is a 15-1-0 repeat possible?

A deep dive into Winnipeg Jets' 4-1 win over the Nashville Predators

The Winnipeg Jets last season set an NHL record as the fastest team to fifteen wins. Can they repeat last year’s success once again?

While I’m being a tad silly here, the Jets always hold a chance at being the best team in the league for as long as they carry Connor Hellebuyck on the roster. That’s just reality with this team.

Winnipeg has a lot of good players, but Hellebuyck is just that much better.

But back to last night’s game, let’s break it down.

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Pessimist: The Jets only played really strong for the first period.
Optimist: The Jets were only the weaker team for 10 of 60 minutes.

Winnipeg came out hot. They drew an early penalty, and Mark Scheifele finished a beautiful cross-seam one-timer from Kyle Connor. Later, Nino Niederreiter scored on the breakaway, and it looked like this game would be settled in the first 10 minutes…

…which technically it was…

…but Nashville did push back. The Predators erased the full 1.5 expected goal lead the Jets produced in the first period, but Connor Hellebuyck stood strong.

In fact, he almost stood strong for a full 60 minutes. Unfortunately, the Jets’ skaters left their netminder alone for the final few minutes.

While HockeyViz.com’s model had the game about even, Evolving-Hockey.com’s model (which does not include blocked shots) gives a much larger advantage to the Predators.

So what was the difference?

It does appear to be the blocked shots. The Jets blocked some that weren’t super high-quality, but dangerous enough that they had a real impact on HV’s xGoal model.

The Jets did have quite a few unblocked shots in prime areas, but Nashville had several too.

Looking at just unblocked shots, Nashville had a bunch of missed shots from some pretty prime scoring areas clustered in the low slot area, many of which were flurry, quick event succession, and rebound shots.

It really appears like Scott Arniel is still trying to figure out the middle-six without Cole Perfetti or Adam Lowry dressed yet.

After the second intermission, Arniel swapped Jonathan Toews’ and Vlad Namestnikov’s wingers. I would guess they’re hoping to get Toews — who has three assists but still hasn’t scored a goal — “going.”

I’m not sure it had much of an effect other than rearranging deck chairs.

Looking at MoneyPuck.com’s forward trio performances (score-adjusted):

• Iafallo–Toews–Pearson: 27% Corsi, 35% xGoals

• Niederreiter–Toews–Nyquist: 55% Corsi, 36% xGoals

• Niederreiter–Namestnikov–Nyquist: 69% Corsi, 76% xGoals

• Iafallo–Namestnikov–Pearson: 29% Corsi, 2%! xGoals

The Jets could really use a play-driving winger who brings some secondary offense to their middle-six… but unfortunately, Mason Appleton seems to be fitting in nicely with the Detroit Red Wings.

But in all seriousness, I think things will get better with the eventual recovery of Lowry and Perfetti. The question, though, is whether others will go down by the time those two return.

I thought maybe it was dispersion of ice time with different defensive pairings, because there was quite a stark contrast in performance.

But, looking at the actual ice time, that doesn’t appear to be the source — Niederreiter had a similar Pionk/DeMelo ice time split as Iafallo.

Yeah… having Lowry and Perfetti returning will be a great boon for the team, but it’s really Dylan Samberg who I think is missed most of all.

I mentioned this in passing before, but the Jets continue to win despite being outshot and outchanced. It hasn’t been a problem yet, but the check-engine light is on.

I’ll touch more upon it in Monday’s weekly review (PS — send me mailbag questions for it), but it’s suboptimal that every single Jet is under 50% in Corsi. Heck, nearly half the team is under 40%.

Every team and fanbase always relies on the “this time it’s different” narrative, but it’s not often the league’s 31st-best Corsi team amounts to much:

• 2024–25 San Jose Sharks – 32nd in points%

• 2023–24 San Jose Sharks – 32nd in points%

• 2022–23 Chicago Blackhawks – 31st in points%

• 2021–22 San Jose Sharks – 22nd in points%

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not doom-and-glooming you. I don’t think the Jets are that bad, and I’d be very surprised if Winnipeg stayed that low in Corsi once their two best Corsi skaters (Lowry and Samberg) rejoin the team.

Just giving context to how much the 5v5 shots and possession have been tilted thus far this season.

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And now to look at decision making and actions of individual players with microstats such as scoring chances, chance passes, zone exits, zone entries, forechecking, and entry denial tracked manually by moi…

Microstats Results

Each post-game analysis will include that game’s 5v5 manually tracked microstats at the end. I’ll provide seasonal updates in the weekly post.

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