Monday Mailbag: Does Adam Lowry Solve The Second Line

Plus prospects updates and other things.

I’m going to bury the lede here.

As the site has grown, so have my responsibilities elsewhere. Don’t worry—I’m not calling it quits. However, I’m struggling to keep up with the volume I maintained last season and in the first quarter of this one. While I’ll continue doing my best, there’s a good chance I’ll make some significant changes next year.

I’m considering shifting to a once-a-week format for next season. Paid subscribers would either receive an exclusive section at the end of the weekly post or an additional post, with bonus posts for major news or events.

I’m sharing this now to be transparent, especially for paid subscribers, so you can make an informed decision about whether to continue supporting me.

Regardless, thank you for your support as I appreciate it a lot.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

READER QUESTIONS

Twitter Questions

If the Jets are looking for an elite 1C already into the second year of an eight-year contract, you won’t find many better than Barzal.

Barzal excels at 5v5, predominantly on offense. He’s one of the league’s biggest rush-chance threats, with high rates of controlled entries and entries leading to scoring opportunities.

As a playmaker, he’s exceptional. His high volume of shot passes and scoring-chance passes (per All Three Zones Project) and strong "Setting" rating (per HockeyViz) reflect that.

However, Barzal isn’t much of a shooter. His shots generally lack high quality, except for rush chances.

Barzal would fit well with the Jets—not just because he’s very good, but because he’s fast, which complements the Jets’ system. Some criticized the Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli additions last season for slowing the team’s overall speed; Barzal would have the opposite effect.

He has historically been a strong power-play performer, though his HockeyViz metrics are less impressive this season. That said, power play performance can often reflect usage and environment rather than individual capability.

One potential concern: Could his talent create locker room friction if he were to unseat Mark Scheifele from the top line?

There’s also the question of how he would gel with Nik Ehlers. Both are speedsters who thrive on quick transitions and prefer distributing over scoring. While chemistry isn’t guaranteed, their styles have intriguing potential. Vilardi isn’t as fleet and I’m sure Connor does not want to be separated from Scheifele or vice versa.

The NHL has actually quietly shifted to chip-in puck tracking for shot location data over the past two seasons, replacing human trackers.

In terms of expected goals (xG), individual shots and their contributing factors may show notable differences. However, on an average and aggregate level, the impact isn’t likely substantial.

Hockey-Graphs once combined manual tracking with NHL data to see how much better xG models could be with additional tracked data, like pass location, pass types, scoring chance flags, and other variables. While these additions improved the models, the enhancements weren’t groundbreaking:

Why? Talent tends to correlate with talent. Players and teams excelling in tracked shot quality factors (e.g., distance, angle) often excel in untracked areas, meaning existing models already capture much of the relevant data indirectly.

I started by addressing the question about deloads, specifically scheduled deloads in a mesocycle. I intended to discuss how deloads are essentially ways to reduce fatigue when it starts to deteriorate performance, and how reactive deloads are generally superior to pre-scheduled ones.

To answer your actual question, for your first session, you should drop weight and volume significantly, but bounce back quickly. Most of your performance decline doesn’t come from a loss of muscle or even maximal force output but rather from the “skilled” component of lifting.

You don’t need to do much initially to achieve good results. Over the next two weeks, you should aggressively titrate back weight and volume as you reacclimate to heavy lifting.

Even within the first week (assuming you perform each lift more than once), you should scale up fairly quickly to your previous working weights. For example, Day 1: 60% of your prior working weight, Day 2: 75%, and Day 3: 85%.

From there, you can transition to a progression style that resembles linear+ for the remaining weeks.

One method I like involves making your last set a near-AMRAP (as many reps as possible). If you exceed your rep target by 1–2 reps, add 5 lbs next time. For 3–4 extra reps, add 10 lbs, and for 5–6, add 15 lbs. This approach helps you return to your prior working weights relatively quickly.

I don’t have a specific player in mind. Really being good and affordable are the two most important variables. Term is a nice bonus.

For forwards, a skilled center would be ideal. Preferably, they could play on the PP2 and PK, transition quickly, and be a solid forechecker.

For defense, anyone competent enough to make the Jets sit Logan Stanley instead of Colin Miller would be an improvement. Ideally, this would be a player with size who can kill penalties—though the size comment is only about convincing the Jets that Stanley is unnecessary. I fear though they add a right shot defender and sit Miller.

BlueSky Questions

I don’t see Mason Appleton improving the new Adam Lowry line over the current setup with Alex Iafallo, but it’s possible. Iafallo’s forechecking and smart stick work have enabled Lowry and Ehlers to retrieve pucks easily, creating significant offense for the line.

Obviously, I also don’t see Appleton displacing Gabriel Vilardi on the top line.

That leaves either the Rasmus Kupari or David Gustafsson line. Appleton should be a competent upgrade over Dominic Toninato, and I think Vlad Namestnikov is an fine 3C or excellent 4C option.

The main question is whether a line featuring Kupari, Cole Perfetti, and Nino Niederreiter is optimal or if the Jets could upgrade one or both of Niederreiter’s linemates.

From an analytics perspective, there’s no reason the ELI trio couldn’t succeed in the long run. Lowry isn’t a great finisher or setup forward relative to shot quality, but he tilts the ice heavily and allows Ehlers to play his game without having to carry linemates like Namestnikov. My only concern if any is about goal production—Ehlers would likely benefit from a better shooter than Lowry or Iafallo, but it may not be necessary.

The Jets are playing a lower-event game than the league average, which isn’t uncommon for defensively focused players, lines, or teams. Playing better defensively often involves taking fewer risks, which can reduce offensive upside.

That’s probably my take.

Reddit Questions

I’d say they’re of similar quality but differ in style and role.

Iafallo plays a low-event game, generating little offense for either team but excelling on the forecheck and neutral zone turnovers, with a strong stick for breaking up plays. He’s solid on the penalty kill and an underrated setup man.

Appleton, on the other hand, is also aggressive on the forecheck and quick to pressure opponents but functions more as a pressure F1 than a puck-stealing F2 like Iafallo. Defensively, Appleton isn’t nearly as impactful, but he contributes more offensively. He’s also more of a shooter and goal scorer.

There’s no doubt that, on average, a third-pairing defender has less impact than a top or middle-pairing one. As you mentioned, third-pairing players play fewer minutes, which minimizes any negative effects.

Additionally, their deployment further reduces their overall impact.

Players like Stanley also face weaker opponents on average, particularly at forward. This means they’re less likely to be punished for mistakes compared to others.

Stanley is also rarely given offensive or defensive zone faceoffs, further limiting his potential impact:

Moreover, third-pairing players are less likely to be deployed during critical moments when the outcome of a goal could significantly impact the game. This makes their ice time even less consequential than it might initially appear just given the percentage of the game they play:

That said, Stanley’s penalty kill and penalty differential performances somewhat offset those, as those are impacts you cannot “usage adjust” away.

Substack App Questions

None.

PROSPECT RECAP

There’s not much to report here, as the Moose were shutout in both of their games last week.

The team does create some chances, but shot differentials suggest the team is lacking in overall talent relative to their peers.

Goaltending hasn’t been much better either. Kaapo Kahkonen sits at a 0.881 save percentage while Thomas Milic has posted a 0.873 save percentage. That’s some of the worst numbers in the AHL, with both being in the bottom 10 of the 52 goalies to play enough games to qualify.

Even Dominc DiVincentiis, who started off very hot, has cooled down to a 0.901 in the ECHL. He’s at least enjoyed more team support given a winning record.

• Dmitri Rashevsky had a three point week over his two games.

• Kristian Vesalainen did not play any regular league games.

• Kieron Walton has had hell of a season, but showed this week he too is human. He only put up one goal over his 3 games played.

• Brayden Yager put up three assists over his three games.

• Kevin He was pointless in two games.

• Colby Barlow has been the one scoring lately, putting up a goal and four assists over three games.
  There were some concerns with his cold start this season, and I’m still not sure on how much upside there is there. But, at least we’re not talking Lukas Sutter type situation.

• Connor Levis played one pointless game. Not that there was no point to the game, but that he didn’t score.

• Alfons Freij did not play.

• Markus Loponen played 3 games with four total assists.

• Jacob Julien continues to struggle with his reduced role, but he did tally two assists over two games this week.

• Garrett Brown did not play.

CLOSING STUFF

Thank you for reading and your continued support.

I’m again sorry it’s taken me a bit longer to get back into the swing of things, but I’m glad to provide as much coverage as I can without a dip in quality.

This week we should see a Wednesday Premium post and regular Friday post as well.