Monday Review: Do the Jets suck now? No, but how good are they really?
Jets weekly review and preview, prospects update, and trending news.
Not true, but the Winnipeg Jets are on a losing streak for more than a single game—their worst losing streak thus far in the 2024-25 season.
Welcome to The Five Hohl—the best (and only, as far as I know) newsletter entirely dedicated to in-depth, evidence-based analysis of all things Winnipeg Jets. If you're into hockey analytics in general, you’ll find some solid insights here too.
I mean, just look at that in-depth analysis of the Jets having their worst losing streak! High quality content right there.
But in all seriousnes, like most Mondays, we’ll review last week, preview the week ahead, check out Jets prospects, and dive into trending topics.
QUICK LIFE UPDATE
I finally, finally caught up on tracking. I now have all 18 games this season tracked, so we should have some pretty solid microstatistic analysis ready for this Wednesday.
JETS WEEKLY REVIEW
Sure, 81-1-0 is now out of reach, but it wasn’t realistic anyway. 79-3-0, however…
The Jets still lead the league with 30 points, boasting a 15-3-0 record. They were the fastest team to 15 wins, though they seem to be stuck there for the moment. Winnipeg also leads the league in regulation wins with 12, and all 15 victories came before a shootout.
Their +31 goal differential remains the NHL's best, but the Jets are starting to look more human. That once-comfortable 16-goal differential lead over the Carolina Hurricanes has shrunk to just four goals, with the Canes still holding a game in hand.
Winnipeg still leads the league in goal differential relative to ice time. Here’s a breakdown of their rankings (and changes from last week) in the key goal differential components:
19th in shot differential impact (down 6 spots)
13th in shot quality impact (down 6 spots)
1st in finishing impact (no change)
4th in goaltending impact (no change)
Evolving-Hockey has updated its RAPM numbers for the season, allowing us to adjust the Jets’ performance for the strength of their opponents. This should eliminate debates about the difficulty of their schedule. Relative to ice time, the Jets rank:
Even Strength:
6th in goal differential
21st in expected goal differential
19th in Corsi differential
Power Play:
1st in goal production
22nd in expected goal production
24th in Corsi production
Penalty Kill:
17th in goal prevention
26th in expected goal prevention
27th in Corsi prevention
We can also view this through HockeyViz.com’s xGoal model, which factors in blocked shots, schedule effects, and coaching impact estimates. More insights on that to come!
At 5v5, the Jets are still good defensively at preventing chances (bottom left), but they are less good defensively than they are bad at creating chances (top left), and both are worse than last week.
Their power play chance creation (top right) and penalty kill chance prevention (bottom right) also took a rough hit and look like a team that may struggle to continue winning the special teams battle.
Why have the Jets been winning?
Well, the Jets have been scoring at a 143 goals per 100 expected goals clip, and allowing 83 per 100 as well. That saving clip is tied with two years ago for the second-best goalie tandem performance of Jets 2.0 history, with last year being first. That finishing performance will crash, though, since 114 per 100 for the 2017-18 Jets is the previous best for the team over a full season.
The Jets' severe drop in shot quality and quantity factors is quite scary, as we’re reaching the point of peak performance predictive volume. This is where shot metrics like Corsi predict the remainder of the season significantly more than goal metrics.
In short, the Jets have been winning while playing in a way that may hurt their chances of continuing to win.
The bad news: These are the things the Jets need to improve significantly if they want to be legitimate contenders in the playoffs and not another easy and early out.
The good news: These things take time and can change for the better, and the Jets have 30 points banked. Going 0.500 for the remainder of the season still equals 94 points.
Not all is bad.
Game 16: Winnipeg Jets 6 at New York Rangers 3
Ah, the good ol’ days.
The Rangers actually did well in sustaining the Jets somewhat in shot volume, but the Jets created some very high-quality chances. xGoals and Corsi are still important tools for single-game evaluation, but we have to remember that there can be some issues with summing the averages of a probabilistic outcome when there is heavy skewing in the tails.
The Jets have been and are indeed opportunistic, something not captured in expected goal models. That’s why they have been able to outscore their expected goals significantly throughout the season thus far. The issue is that it is very difficult to continue doing so over the confines of a full season.
Game 17: Winnipeg Jets 1 at Tampa Bay Lightning 4
This game had its ups and downs, and the downs were plenty. Despite having moments of sustained pressure, the Jets weren’t able to crack the Lightning. I thought the game plan for Tampa was pretty clear: be very aggressive on the Jets, especially in puck pursuit. The Lightning were able to cut the Jets' speed and prevent Winnipeg from being a real threat.
Game 18: Winnipeg Jets 0 at Florida Panthers 5
This was a paddling.
I had the great fortune of having to watch this matchup twice for tracking, once with each broadcast. I found it interesting that Sportsnet was trying to pump the tires of the Jets and their first-period performance. I viewed the game the second time (I came in late for the first one) as fairly one-sided from the start.
There were no really solid performances, although some were less at fault than others.
We’ll get a bit more into this later.
JETS WEEKLY PREVIEW
Game 19: Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets will have their chance at revenge, and the Panthers will have their chance to re-open fresh wounds.
Florida is very good defensively, and Winnipeg has been struggling to create chances. The Jets might need some power play magic to crack that egg.
I won’t go over the team, as we just did that last week and we all remember how the last game went.
Game 19: Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins
I was kind of shocked to see this, given the Penguins' struggles this season. So, I went over to their team page and… holy crap! The Penguins aren’t nearly as bad as their record… or at least not in shot metrics.
The team allows a lot of offense, but they create twice as much. What’s sinking them is the exact same thing floating up the Jets: finishing and goaltending. If you just made both teams average there, the Penguins would be higher in the standings.
Sure, if I had two wheels, I’d be a bicycle, but it’s still meaningful.
Game 20: Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators
How bad have the Predators been? Well, the Jets are away, on the second of back-to-back road games, and the Jets are nearly the favorites.
Nashville sunk a bunch of money into a bunch of aging veterans. Brady Skjei has actually been fairly dependable for the Predators and gives them two top-pairing-caliber defenders. Also, ROR and Filip Forsberg are still great players.
Everywhere else is the problem. I’m sure they wanted Steven Stamkos to be providing more value than an NHL fourth-line forward, and Jonathan Marchessault hasn’t been much better. Alex Carrier, who did well last year, has seemingly come back to Earth.
PROSPECT RECAP
MANITOBA MOOSE
While the Winnipeg Jets have been winning, the baby Jets have been losing. That said, with the Jets having two losses this last week, the Manitoba Moose decided to keep their anti-Jets play consistent and pulled two wins.
I’ll keep things short and in note form:
Nikita Chibrikov produced four assists in his four games. Last year, AJF and Toninato got the calls for call-up duty, but I think this year Chibrikov has made his case on the Moose and in camp for that role.
Elias Salomonsson was a defensive defender not looked at for his offense. There were many likening him to being another Dylan Samberg: a guy with size, skating, toughness, and a very good defensive IQ who can handle the puck when needed. Sure, some of it is that he’s getting the lion’s share of power-play ice time, but this is a very positive sign that he’s producing at this clip.
Brad Lambert was held off the scoresheet. I know some were hoping that he’d take a significant step forward and grab that 2C spot this year for the Jets, akin to Stankoven in Dallas and Lundell in Florida last year. It might not be the season for that, though.
It’s a tough go for Chaz Lucius, who was being game-managed but now seems not to be playing at all.
Aside, but maybe a bit mean: el-oh-el at those in my mentions this season saying Tyrel Bauer could replace Brenden Dillon. He’s not even good enough to be the Dillon of the AHL.
I find it kind of funny that the Jets supposedly had this “depth” which created a “really tough competitive environment” for camp, but these players are struggling to perform in the American Hockey League.
Domenic DiVincentiis continues to look good with his 0.930 save percentage. The other two in the Moose’s three-headed beast, Kaapo Kahkonen and Thomas Milic, are still struggling with 0.880 and 0.865, respectively.
AROUND THE WORLD
Some quick notes:
Kristian Vesalainen slows down, with only a goal in two games.
Dmitry Rashevsky did not play.
Kevin He scored a goal, adding to his impressive totals.
Brayden Yager is not putting up comparable numbers to Rutger McGroarty last season, but he’s still scoring well. He put up a goal and two assists in two games.
Kieron Walton played two games where he scored a goal… and five assists?!
Zachary Nehring played two more games, with one assist.
Connor Levis’ role as Mr. Dependable has ended, with only an assist in two games. Too bad, I liked the two games played, one goal, one assist streak he had going on.
Jacob Julien bounces back a tad with two goals in as many games, plus an assist.
Alfons Freij played three games with no points. He’s not playing huge minutes, being ranked 6th for defenders on his team in average ice time. But, he’s a regular skater, which is saying something for playing in a men’s pro league.
Markus Loponen had no points in two games. He’s been cold as of late.
Colby Barlow scored two goals in three games.
Garrett Brown played another two games.
Fabian Wagner actually will now be in Moose updates. The SHL is not a developmental league, and they decided they would win more games with Wagner elsewhere.
CURRENT NEWS:
Prospects Updates
There’s a lot going on this year with the Jets' prospects. There have been a few surprises (He and Walton) and a few disappointments (Julien and Barlow).
I’m not a bad scout—at least I think I’m fairly decent given my interactions with other scouts and my record since covering the Jets starting in 2011. That said, I know my strength is in numerical analysis, so I brought on Elite Prospects OHL scout Lauren Kelly to give some quick thoughts on a few prospects and their production so far this year.
Kevin He
He's offensive explosion was actually something I anticipated. His tools and motor are so strong that he just felt like the perfect breakout candidate. Now that Niagara actually has some competent players on its team (they made significant moves to bolster their blueline and goaltending), they're no longer spending entire games chasing the puck around. He now has teammates who can help get him the puck, and on top of his skating ability, he's such a lethal finisher. His emergence has really helped propel Niagara to the top of the Eastern Conference and I have no doubt that he will be able to maintain that this season - he's just too good, and his game is so well-rounded.
Colby Barlow
Barlow's rough start is a bit of a mystery. He's now playing with way better players in Oshawa than he ever had in Owen Sound, like Beckett Sennecke and Calum Ritchie. Part of it at the beginning of the year was that it felt like he needed longer to adjust to Oshawa's system, and he was also getting quality scoring chances but unable to finish. But playing with more talented forwards means he's just not going to get the puck as often, because there are other options to produce offence than just him. He was an adequate playmaker, but it wasn't necessarily a strength.
The more concerning problem now, is that the skating hasn't really improved, which limits him on the rush and prevents him from getting prime scoring areas without being picked up by defenders. And if it's an issue now, it will likely be in the AHL and NHL, should he get there. His game was already so developed in his draft year that he was closer to the end of his developmental runway compared to his peers in that draft class, so it's more than likely that the player he is now is what he will be in the NHL.
Jacob Julien
Julien's in a bit of a tough spot right now considering that he's getting significant minutes centering Denver Barkey and Easton Cowan, but neither of them are really running the show in London right now. Sure, Cowan's still managing to extend his insane 50-game regular season point streak every game, but he isn't running up the scoresheet in each game (usually only 1-2 points per outing). Julien's doing a decent job of playing the role he's been tasked with as their centre, but he's not much of a shooter and his tools still grade as NHL-average to below.
He's still more of a defensive centre, even playing alongside two players who are known for their offence. It seems that he's settled into that role more this season. But because the tools haven't improved significantly and production seems to have fallen off a cliff this year, it's going to be difficult for him to earn a contract with the Jets unless something changes.
Just to add on Julien — seems to be much more passive this season with the puck, and he’s struggled at times defensively too. Looks like the skating has taken a step back (looks a bit slower), which has impacted things as well.
Update On Jets Lines and Pairs
To summarize the above stats:
Goal differential is what you hope to succeed in.
Corsi measures shot volume, while expected goals (xG) adjusts shot volume for shot quality (excluding blocked shots for non-HockeyViz.com xG) better measure the underlying performance.
Weighted shots essentially (bit of an over simplification) combine all three metrics in a way that is about as descriptive of performance as xG but more predictive of future success than any of the other three metrics.
I’ve been working on an independent article for about a week now on the Jets' two skilled lines and their performance.
The short version: they haven’t been pulling their weight. Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi have played more 5v5 minutes together than any other trio in the NHL this year. Despite this, they’ve been outscored and are performing below average in all metrics for a top line.
Usage isn’t an excuse either. The Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton line has taken on tougher matchups—especially at home—and has performed exceptionally well.
It’s the Lowry line driving the Jets’ success at 5v5, while the Scheifele line has been the major anchor. Fixing the top line is the most straightforward way to significantly improve the Jets’ results, as outlined earlier in this article.
That said, I did mention at the start of the season that I’d be okay keeping that trio together despite poor results, as long as the team overall was doing well.
The Vlad Namestnikov line has been steadily improving, though they’ve benefited more from good fortune than stellar play. Their weakest area—expected goals—isn’t the strongest predictive metric, so this might resolve itself with time.
The fourth line has arguably been unlucky. However, based on my tracked microstatistic data, they’re not generating many scoring chances. While this line excels at grinding down opponents and keeping the puck in the offensive zone, it mainly serves to wind down the clock. For now, they’ve been outscored relative to ice time even more than the Scheifele line.
Just like the forwards, the Jets’ defense also faces a top-of-the-roster problem.
Historically, Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo have complemented each other well, excelling in tough matchups even with large shares of ice time alongside Connor and Scheifele.
This season, however, that hasn’t been the case. Morrissey, while still contributing offensively, hasn’t been as exceptional. His puck management and ability to control play have taken a hit. The bigger issue, however, lies with DeMelo. While still decent defensively, his puck management has been extremely poor, and his lack of offensive contributions has negated the defensive strengths he still brings.
While this has been disappointing, the Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk pairing has been a revelation.
Samberg’s slight upgrade over former Pionk partner Brenden Dillon in puck management and breakouts has allowed Mr. Chaos Incarnate (Pionk) to focus on generating offensive-zone chaos instead of creating defensive headaches.
It’s pushed Pionk just out of replacement-level territory.
Meanwhile, Dylan Samberg’s stellar play has elevated him from first-pairing caliber into the fringe-elite category:
PAID-SUBSCRIBER WEDNESDAY PREVIEW
Wednesdays at The Five Hohl are where we publish and analyze the Jets’ performances using manually tracked microstatistics. We also conduct weekly analytical deep dives and discuss the theory and utility of analytics in hockey.
We continue to look into the Jets’ performance in different microstats, adding in puck recoveries in each zone to the already large number of things with zone exits, entries, entry denials, retrievals, scoring chances, scoring chance passes, and forechecking.
This week I’m going to dip our toes into some special teams, even if the samples are quite small.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Thank you once again for reading this week’s Monday Review.
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