Monday Review: Don't Fix What Isn't Broken
Plus Jets weekly review and preview, prospects update, and trending news.
In the latest edition of The Five Hohl's Monday Review, we'll recap the Winnipeg Jets' picture perfect 3-0-0 week, preview the upcoming match ups for this week, updates on the performance of top prospects, and talk the Jets current forward lines.
JETS WEEKLY REVIEW
We’re so back.
The Winnipeg Jets may not have moved in the standings with their 3-0-0 streak, but maybe the One Piece was the “nakama” we made on the way… I’m sorry.
But, in all seriousness, the Jets may not have moved up in the Central standings, but the vibes have flipped and the team is looking good. The Jets comfortably sit in third place with 100 points, only 2.5 games behind Dallas and 1.5 games behind Colorado, with a 4-game lead ahead of Nashville. The Jets also rank third in points percentage (0.649) and goal differential, boasting a +46.
Examining even-strength performance through RAPM adjusted via evolving-hockey.com, we remind everyone that the Jets are still the second NHL team in 5v5 goal differential relative to time (+0.653). They haven’t moved here for quite some time now. They also haven’t moved much in shot metrics and are still eleventh for expected goal differential (+0.193) and Corsi differential (+3.32).
Now, let’s delve into the general trends in overall performance from hockeyviz.com.
The shortened version is we see improvement, which should be expected with a three-win streak.
The Jets' 5v5 offense, as seen in the top left visual, remains at +4% over league average. That’s now the fourth week in a row with no major change in the Jets' combination of shot quality and quantity factors.
In the top right, the Jets' ability to create chances on the power play improved from significantly below league average to slightly less significantly below league average for the second week in a row. The Jets only need to repeat these two-week improvements and they’ll be average in a month. When do playoffs start?
Looking at finishing in the center-top visual, the Jets' finishing jumped back up to two weeks ago levels, with 96.9 goals for every 100 expected goals.
Transitioning to the bottom left, the team’s 5v5 defensive performance bounces back to -6%. Still a far cry from the -10% in their defensive prime in December and January, but it’s good to see the Jets return to their identity.
In the bottom right visual, the Jets' penalty kill improves? This is good news. If the Jets can continue to improve both on the power play and penalty kill, it will make the team less dependent on winning the penalty differential battle in the playoffs.
In the bottom middle quadrant, the Jets' strongest area —goaltending— falls for the third week in a row, although by very little. They are now allowing about 81.9 goals per 100 expected goals.
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
The Jets are good again. The newly deployed lines worked really well for the most part. The Mark Scheifele line had a goal against and was slightly negative in expected goals, but everywhere else was really good. The Adam Lowry line won their matchups, as did the Morgan Barron line. The Sean Monahan line really won it for the Jets, scoring three goals and severely outplaying their opposition.
Given the recent storylines, you couldn’t write a more perfect microcosm of the Jets’ top line situations. The Jets started off strong and looked good. However, after some broken lines due to power play time, Nik Ehlers found himself on the ice with Cole Perfetti who set the Dane up for a goal. This caused Bowness to revert back to the ol’ faithful 81-55-13, to the Jets' detriment. Then, after the Flames tied it up, Bowness went back to the Jets' original lines.
It’s almost comical how you can see exactly where the two swaps were in the xG worm.
The game against the Wild was a bit more back and forth than the previous games but was fairly entertaining. Minnesota won the overall xG battle, but the Jets were better at 5v5 and on the scoresheet.
Winnipeg’s fourth line was the real story, scoring three of the team’s four goals and dominating in expected goal differential.
JETS WEEKLY PREVIEW
“This is the real test!” The Jets will face all three of the top-four non-Winnipeg Central Division teams, and all of them away.
The Jets fly down to Nashville to face the Predators. The Preds went on a bit of a magical run but have since cooled off a bit. Their run was in part spurred by the team’s additions of Zucker and Beauvillier, adding some depth to the forward roster.
Nashville is very strong at creating scoring chances, both at 5v5 and on the power play, but has struggled to finish unless it’s from point shots. A lot of their offense extends from Josi or Carrier. Their 5v5 defense is not bad, especially net front, but their penalty kill can be a weakness, especially with only average goaltending this year.
The Jets then head over to Dallas to face off against Bowness’ old team, the Stars. Dallas has been fairly strong on most fronts. Their 5v5 scoring chance generation is about equal to the Jets, although their defensive performance looks like the Jets’ in January. They have ever-so-slightly above-average penalty kill with an exceptional power play and finishing performance. Their only weakness has been their goaltending, especially for shots coming from the left wing.
Hintz and Robertson are genuine stars, but the team boasts exceptional depth as well. While Winnipeg likely has the best defensive third line in hockey, the Stars may have the best offensive third line, with Stankoven, Johnston, and Benn. All while carrying one of the best top-four blue lines of Harley, Heiskanen, Lindell, and Tanev.
It will be a tough matchup.
Things don’t get any easier as the Jets finish their road trip in Denver against the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avs are not as defensive as the Jets or Stars, but they dominate offensively, whether by 5v5 or power play, and have the finishing behind it. It’s not that their defense is bad either, as they are above average at 5v5 and only slightly below on the penalty kill.
Colorado has some injuries, but they are still a dominant force. MacKinnon is putting up a Hart Trophy-level performance, and Mittelstadt has fit in well, giving the team a real 1-2 punch at center. I’m not sure how much is team effects, but the sG model has most of the Avs forwards giving top-six caliber value, and then an even prettier picture on the blue line than Dallas.
Small samples can fool people to be overly confident from results, but you couldn’t put up much of a tougher test for Winnipeg for the stretch drive.
PROSPECT RECAP
MANITOBA MOOSE
In their playoff push, the Manitoba Moose won two games outside of regulation and lost two games in regulation. Luckily, their two wins were against the team chasing them, so it allowed them to keep some distance, being nine points ahead of the Chicago Wolves with only five games remaining.
Chicago has one game in hand, but two of the Moose’s remaining five games are hosting bottom of the division Iowa Wild, two visiting the Texas Stars who are just above the Moose, and one visiting top division Milwaukee Admirals. Chicago’s schedule has them also visiting the Milwaukee Admirals, one game hosting the Iowa Wild, two games hosting the second-place Grand Rapids Griffins, and a home-and-home series against the third-place Rockford IceHogs.
Suffice to say, the Manitoba Moose have the lead with an easier schedule in front of them.
The Moose have recently signed Dylan Anhorn to an ATO contract, adding a very versatile and skilled offensive left-shot defender. Getting a potentially free prospect is great, but some context is required noting that Anhorn, as a ‘99, is the same age as Dylan Samberg and two years older than Ville Heinola.
The Moose have also added Colby Barlow to the roster to gain some pro experience after his Draft+1 season in the OHL. Barlow has been a great goal scorer in the OHL and has a lot of the intangibles scouts and coaches love. There are some statistical reservations about his D+1 performance after having a drop in points/game pace despite playing on a stronger squad, but he did have injuries that could have set him back this season. He will likely be returning to the OHL for his final season next year.
AROUND THE WORLD
No changes for the regular season other than Zachary Nehring playing a few pointless (as in not scoring, not in a nihilistic sense) games.
Playoffs continue:
Rutger McGroarty enters the Frozen Four NCAA Tournament this weekend.
Kristian Vesalainen and HIFK played game seven against the Pelicans and lost. He had one goal and one assist in seven playoff games.
Pavel Kraskovsky’s Lokomotive looks to sweep Traktor in the KHL semifinals. He has one goal and six assists in 15 postseason games.
Salomonsson’s team has won one game in the second round, where he put up an assist. He now has one goal and one assist in five games played. I’ll update his Corsi at the end of the series, but he’s been playing very well.
As noted above, Colby Barlow ended his postseason in the OHL. He had one goal and two assists in his team’s being swept by the Saginaw Spirit.
Jacob Julien has three assists in the London Knights’ four-game sweep.
Connor Levis had three assists in the five games that the Giants played, losing to the Silvertips 4 games to 1. Levis's season has ended.
Zachary Nehring has two more games to play to finish the regular season.
CURRENT NEWS: Don’t Fix What Isn’t Broken
TOP LINE
The Jets' top line is the best in terms of actually outscoring the opposition that the Jets have seen thus far this season. Now, outscoring does not mean you will always outscore. This is why we look at models like xGoal, Corsi, and weighted Shots.
Long story short: it’s a blend of xGoals, actual goals, and Corsi.
Weighted shots are basically Corsi that weights goals, shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots differently. It’s almost as descriptive as xGoals in outscoring and more predictive of future outscoring than Corsi.
So yeah, Ehlers and Vilardi have done extremely well and are arguably the Jets' best top line combination, although Connor and Ehlers are close enough to call it negligible. Either way, you should keep Ehlers on the top line.
SECOND LINE
This won’t be as popular to see because there’s been a lot of hype with this line. However, while the goal differential results have been positive, there have been stronger performing lines. However, the sample for Connor-Monahan-Perfetti has been very small, and microstats suggest this line should do better in the long run.
That said, trade-offs still suggest keeping this roster configuration if we assume Toffoli is not in the top-six. The gap between 27-55-13 and 81-55-13 is about 4.71 wShots per hour, while the gap between the Jets' best Monahan line (27-23-73) and current variety is 2.84 shots.
So, you could improve the second line, but you’d end up hurting the line that plays more minutes by almost double the amount per minute. Not great.
Also controversial, but there is an argument here that 81-23-x may be better with Toffoli than Perfetti.
THIRD LINE
The Toffoli-Lowry-Appleton line has probably been a lot better than their even goal differential suggests, given their shot and xGoal differentials.
One must always be cognizant that these numbers are not in perfectly equitable situations. You want to mostly look at overarching trends and large differences, especially with smaller sample sizes.
We know that Niederreiter has been good with Lowry, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Niederreiter-Lowry-Toffoli outperforms the usual go-to of Appleton instead of Toffoli. There’s a bit of guesswork in that, but it makes sense both in terms of quality of player and most underlying metrics.
Overall
The primary purpose of this exercise is to show that the evidence is still heavily in favor of keeping Nik Ehlers on the top line, and probably to keep Connor on the second line.
There are some variations and combinations that make sense theoretically that we haven’t seen, but we’re running out of runway.
I think when Niederreiter returns, provided that results haven’t vastly swung in different directions, it makes sense to move Toffoli to his natural side, and keep him with Lowry. This means keeping the Jets’ top-six as is.
PAID-SUBSCRIBER WEDNESDAY PREVIEW
The Five Hohl’s weekly post on Wednesdays is where we publish and analyze the Jets’ performances in manually tracked microstatistics. We also conduct weekly analytical deep dives and engage in discussions on the theory and utility of analytics in hockey. We’re also releasing a hockey analytics primer and explainer ebook in the summer, which will be free for any premium subscribers.
Right now I’m focusing on answering questions given to me by paid subsrcibers in terms of more indepth research topics revolving the Jets and
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FINAL THOUGHTS
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