Playoff Performances Thus Far and Where To Improve
A deep-dive on the Winnipeg Jets analytical results after splitting two games to the Colorado Avalanche
It’s two games. It’s only two games. Right?
The Jets split their home games, removing their home-ice advantage. It’s now a best-of-five series, with three games being played a mile high.
The Playoffs Thus Far
It’s been a tough go. The series is 1-1, but the underlying results are not remotely even.
At 5v5, the Jets have outscored the Colorado Avalanche 8-7. However, the Winnipeg Jets have only shot 39% of all shot attempts (goals, saves, misses, and blocks) and only control about 32% of expected goals when combining shot quality and quantity together.
Over at naturalstattrick.com, the Jets are 38-58 in scoring chances and 18-25 in high-danger shot attempts.
Essentially, at 5v5, the Winnipeg Jets have performed worse against the Colorado Avalanche than the 2023-24 regular-season Chicago Blackhawks did on average.
That’s not just a two-game sample either. The Jets at 5v5 were struggling throughout much of their six-game win streak:
But how have the Jets’ individuals fared so far in the postseason?
Weighted shots are similar to Corsi in that they look at all four types of shot attempts. However, unlike Corsi, each shot attempt is weighted differently. A goal is worth more, although I regress goals slightly given expected goals, and then shots on net, misses, and blocks are each worth less.
For a team that has struggled in shot metrics in the first two games as much as they have, it’s not a surprise that the Jets are all in the negative.
The Jets' results on defense are a bit divergent. By most shot metrics, the second pairing of Brenden Dillon and Neal Pionk has been terrible. However, they have outscored the opposition 5-1 while on the ice, and Dillon has fared well in his minutes away from Pionk.
I think that all four of the bottom four defenders have been a problem, but the biggest issue comes from the Jets really having only one effective puck-moving defender: Josh Morrissey. Colorado’s speed has been able to take advantage of that fact.
Some Suggestions
There’s a few things I would suggest Rick Bowness do, if I could…
Split Up The Top-Six
The top line scored some nice goals while the second line has not. However, the actual performance in out-chancing the opposition is about the same. The largest difference has been sometimes Alexander Georgiev stops the puck and sometimes he has not.
I’m not arguing for Nik Ehlers on the top line. I don’t care about that right now and I’m way past that. All I’m saying is change needs to happen because this is not good enough. Bowness took a gamble that some forward lines that didn’t work well in the regular season would pan out in the playoffs, and that hasn’t happened yet.
In the words of Oscar Wilde: “A thing is not necessarily true because a man dies for it.”
Bring In Cole Perfetti
Cole Perfetti is not a perfect player. He’s not a game-breaking player for the Jets. He is a 19-goal, 38-point scorer who ranked second on the Jets in WAR and ninth in xWAR. He’s a top-twelve player on the Jets' roster, and that should be good enough to get him playing.
Solve The Blue Line
Rick Bowness essentially kept the Jets the same for over 80-something percent of the season. Then all of a sudden, he throws Dylan Samberg on his off-hand side and an okay Logan Stanley. On top of that, he’s consistently ignored that Neal Pionk has been fairly disastrous this season… and the two seasons prior.
I don’t know if the solution is to bring in Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt, or what… but it’s time that Bowness stops ignoring one of the players that has been hurting the Jets more than almost anyone else.
Stop Outsmarting Yourself
One of the Jets' biggest issues this season, not just in the playoffs, has been that the Jets actually perform worse at home when Bowness gets his preferred line matchups.
Adam Lowry has had a very, very good season. He’s been a great player, and everyone likes to praise the throwback checking, shutdown line.
Here’s the kicker:
The Adam Lowry line has a 47% Corsi against the other team’s best in the regular season.
“But I thought they have been so good?”
They have… just not in the line matches that Bowness wishes. It’s been all the other minutes, like against the opponent’s middle with a 54% Corsi, or their bottom with a 59% Corsi.
Also, Mark Scheifele with Neal Pionk against the opponent’s best: 39% Corsi.
Jets Playoff Microstatistics
Now let’s look at the microstats I have been tracking manually.
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