Hello everyone, and sorry for the delay. I took my annual trip to the cabin with the family and was hoping to get some writing done there, but unfortunately, I just didn’t have the time.
That said, I’m rested and ready to dive back into it. Why don’t we take a little directionless stroll as I talk about what has happened, may happen, and should happen for the Winnipeg Jets this summer with free agency upon us?
Please note: this article was written at the end of June so there may be some things out of date as players are signed. :)
Rutger McGroarty Rumours
The word on the street is that Rutger McGroarty and the Jets are at an impasse. Some suggest that McGroarty wants to be in the NHL next season and believes he is ready for that step, while others say that McGroarty and his advisor simply believe that Winnipeg is not the best spot for him to play, given their roster and handling of other high-end young players.
I have heard rumblings of dissatisfaction from more than one player, so it’s fair to say that it is at least possible. It’s also true that McGroarty has a strong case for himself.
McGroarty had a fantastic season at the University of Michigan, especially given that he lost a chunk to a pretty rough injury, which may have even slowed him down. Scoring like that suggests he could be ready, especially given that points undervalue his overall game — at least in my opinion.
I think there is merit to McGroarty being NHL ready, at least somewhat. Also, I don’t think it’s fair to say a player has to earn their spot, because, honestly, the NHL is not run as a meritocracy. Players are gifted spots as “theirs to lose” all the time; tenure and how other players feel about you impact ice time.
I will also argue against the whole “the NHL isn’t a developmental league” stance. The best league for a player to develop in is the hardest level where a player can still play real minutes and perform well enough. The real question is whether or not a player, like McGroarty, is good enough to play real minutes and perform well enough.
The NHL is a very difficult league. With the (way too slow) addition of analytics enhancing roster selection efficiency and improvements in diet, training, and development, we are seeing the NHL separate itself from other leagues more and more each year.
It’s becoming harder for young prospects to come in and make a difference, but that doesn’t mean they can’t.
It’s not just about how hard the NHL is. The Jets historically have been hesitant to play young players who might be bad over older veteran players who are provenly bad. Ville Heinola actually made the Jets last season out of camp, but after unfortunate timing with injuries, the team was reluctant to break the status quo even when the team was struggling.
Seventeen forwards played significant minutes for the Jets last year. Using weighted Goals Above Replacement (a blend of expected and actual GAR), all 17 performed better than the average NHL fourth-line forward, and 11 gave above league average value.
Of those 11 above-league-average forwards, 8 are already signed for next season, and Cole Perfetti likely will extend at some point this summer, bringing that number up to 9.
That’s a very crowded roster to break into. It’s difficult to break into any roster given familiarity and other biases/hurdles, let alone a roster that challenged for first place and has most of the players returning.
This is all a long-winded way of saying I get why the Jets cannot guarantee a spot and why McGroarty et al. are skeptical the Jets are the right spot for him to break in.
Nikolaj Ehlers Rumours
I’m not sure which side leaked it, but there is talk that Nikolaj Ehlers is not currently interested in extending with the Winnipeg Jets and wants to test free agency.
Like McGroarty, on one hand, I get it.
Minute-for-minute, Ehlers has been either the best or second-best performer of the Jets forwards for seven years in a row, without the ice time to match.
Of the Jets with 50 5v5 minutes or more, Ehlers ranks:
2017-18: 2nd in sG, 7th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2018-19: 1st in sG, 6th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2019-20: 1st in sG, 6th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2020-21: 1st in sG, 6th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2021-22: 1st in sG, 6th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2022-23: 1st in sG, 7th in 5v5 TOI/GP
2023-24: 2nd in sG, 7th in 5v5 TOI/GP
Synthetic Goals is an estimate of a player’s overall value in how they improve the team in shot quantity, quality, setting, finishing, and penalty differential. Ehlers has consistently been the Jets’ best player in performance value, but he’s never cracked being 6th in 5v5 ice time.
And the wild thing is that this is 5v5 ice time ranking. One could argue, although I’d argue back, that Ehlers isn’t as good in special teams as he is at 5v5, but at 5v5 he’s been a top 30-point scorer and goal differential player. He’s been by far the best on the team.
And, I don’t want this to go on too long, but I’ve disproven most of the common arguments against Ehlers and his ice time. Ehlers performs just as good, if not better, when he gets more ice time and plays with/against the best. All the more important, the Jets and their best players perform much better when Ehlers gets more ice time and plays with/against the best.
All this to say, it’s understandable that Ehlers might feel slighted by an organization that has used him as a fringe top-six forward when he’s been among the league’s best over a seven-year period in points per hour and goal differential per hour.
By the way, I use those two stats despite them not telling as much of the full story as more advanced numbers (like sG and wGAR), because they are numbers I know for a fact most NHL skaters are aware of.
There is no doubt in my mind that Ehlers is aware that he scores more points relative to his ice time than the 5-6 Jets that tend to play above him. There is only a sliver of doubt that Ehlers is aware that he outscores the opponent by a greater degree relative to his ice time than the 5-6 Jets that tend to play above him.
The roster keeps changing, and he keeps performing, and yet he’s always in the same place.
The silver lining to this is everyone dies (gets traded) a hero, or lives (stays) long enough to become the villain.
Ehlers is going to be in his 28-year-old season this year, and his best years are likely — but not certainly — behind him. He may age gracefully, or he may not.
Who knows? Any guess is only that: a guess.
Nate Schmidt Buyout
I like Nate Schmidt, and I believe a good number of the Jets’ locker room did as well.
He was a decent performer on the ice for his role and likely provided a great deal of intangibles that helped right the Winnipeg ship and the team’s “vibes.”
Honestly, Schmidt is a decent bottom-pairing defender. I don’t even think me stealing the above quote and repurposing it for him is fair, but I wanted to use something that wasn’t a graph.
Schmidt outperformed defenders this season that made the Stanley Cup finals. You can win with regulars far worse than Schmidt.
The issue was that they don’t tend to carry a $5.9 million dollar cap hit, and the Jets require some flexibility.
What To Do With That Flexibility
So what do the Jets do with all that new fancy cap room?
Well, the truth is there may not be that much.
Let’s just say the Jets sign RFAs Logan Stanley, Ville Heinola, Cole Perfetti, and David Gustafsson to contracts pretty much right on most projections for those players. The Jets are unable to find any free agents willing to take the long bus ride to a city without an airport, and so they let Elias Salomonsson make the team in his first year in North America.
That gives the Jets about $5,340,000 space before finding Connor Hellebuyck a backup.
So, there’s not a lot of wiggle room there. It’s not a lot of flexibility, and the team likely wishes to build up cap space throughout the season to add for the trade deadline.
The Jets can go for an addition at center, right wing, or defense, but probably not more than one.
That puts the Jets out of the running for a lot of the better options, even if many were unlikely to come to Winnipeg anyway.
At defense, they may look at a cheaper option. Some ideas could be Alex Carrier, Mike Reilly, Sean Walker, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington, Calen Addison, or Erik Brannstrom. But most other options are either too expensive and/or not good enough.
Given Evolving-Hockey’s projected 3x $5.26 million for Sean Monahan, the Jets probably lost out on extending Monahan as he was outside their available budget. This is going to be true for Chandler Stephenson and Elias Lindholm as well.
When some of the best bang-for-buck names are Jack Roslovic, Anthony Mantha, and Daniel Sprong, you know that free agency is dry for forwards.
In conclusion, the Winnipeg Jets face a challenging offseason with key players potentially leaving and limited cap space to make significant additions. The situation with McGroarty highlights the difficulties of integrating young talent into a competitive roster, while Ehlers' situation underscores the frustration of underutilized talent. The buyout of Schmidt provides some cap relief, but the Jets will need to be strategic and perhaps creative in how they use their flexibility. The coming months will be crucial for the Jets as they navigate free agency and prepare for the next season.
SUMMER SERIES THUS FAR
Up Next: Cole Perfetti, Vlad Namestnikov, and Alex Iafallo
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As a reminder: I will try to keep to my schedule of two free and one paid post a week for most of the summer moving forward, but I’m going to be a bit more flexible on those targets.
Luckily for you, my vacation has already passed and I’m back from the cabin.