The Winnipeg Jets are less fragile, but are they better?

A trade deadline review

Welcome to The Five Hohl

The best deep-dive hockey analytics blog focusing on the Winnipeg Jets. Also the worst. We’re 1/1—winner by default.

After taking four posts to dissect who the Jets are, comparing them to past Cup winners, determining what they need, and reviewing those documented as available to figure out if they would help or hurt the Jets…

---

FIRST, A RECAP

Part One: We compared the 2024-25 Winnipeg Jets to previous Stanley Cup winners

Part Two: We discussed evidence based roster construction

Part Three: The forwards

Part Four: The defenders

In summary: The Jets were a good (duh) but imperfect team with weaknesses that could be addressed at the trade deadline.

Winnipeg Jets’ Strengths:

✅ A generational netminder having a career-best season
✅ The second-best power play since 2007-08
✅ Some of the best forward depth in the league
✅ Two elite left-shot defenders in Samberg and Morrissey
✅ Above-average 5v5 defensive performance

Winnipeg Jets’ Weaknesses:

❌ League-average 5v5 offense
❌ A league-average top line at 5v5, lacking elite forward talent
❌ Right-side defenders in the top four
❌ Left-side defender on the bottom pair

The absolute best-case scenario—if NHL trades worked like a video game—would have been adding:
🔹 A 2C
🔹 A top-six right winger
🔹 A top-four right-shot defenseman swap
🔹 A third-pair left-shot defenseman

Spoiler alert: The Jets didn’t get any of those.

But they did add two players.

---

Brandon Tanev

Brandon Tanev brings some good vibes. He was a fan favorite in Winnipeg, well-liked by teammates, coaches, and the crowd.

Fun The Five Hohl fact: I was the one who broke the news of Tanev signing out of the NCAA back in my Jets Nation days. My second confirmation source? A friend who texted Chris Tanev.

Statistically, this has been a rough season for Tanev.

At 5v5, he’s been a net negative—hurting the team’s offensive chance generation while helping opponents create theirs, even after adjusting for usage and deployment. He’s an average finisher and playmaker, with his team scoring about as expected based on shot quality and quantity.

In terms of drawing and taking penalties, he’s also average—nothing special either way.

His biggest issue this season? His penalty-killing impact. When he’s on the ice, the PK has been severely porous, even more so than when he’s on the bench.

Historically, Tanev has never been an offensive driver, but he used to provide a strong defensive impact and a small positive effect on the PK. Winnipeg is now betting on him rediscovering that form from two years ago—a tough ask for a 33-year-old forward.

The biggest problem? Tanev doesn’t represent an upgrade over any Jets forward he might replace. If his performance in Winnipeg mirrors what he’s done in Seattle, scratching Morgan Barron would actually be a downgrade.

That’s not a huge knock on Tanev—he’s a solid bottom-six depth piece. But the Jets already have arguably the best winger depth in the NHL. If you're not upgrading, what's the point?

Statistically speaking, Mason Appleton has been the weakest performer—but even he has provided third-line value.

• Likes to shoot and creates a decent number of chances, but isn’t much of a playmaker.

• Splits his offensive creation between the rush and the cycle.

• Good at deflecting shots from the point.

• Frequently enters the offensive zone, but mostly via dump-and-chase, which leads to a lot of neutral-zone turnovers.

• Surprisingly bad at retrieving pucks in the defensive zone—concerning, given Winnipeg’s struggles with that in last year’s playoffs.

• Doesn’t pressure defenders as much as expected, which is surprising considering his speed and my memories of his first stint as a Jet.

Luke Schenn

Luca Sbisa? Sorry, I meant Luke Schenn—a gritty, physical defenseman with size who has rarely been better than replacement level over his career.

Like Tanev, Schenn has struggled at 5v5. Unlike Tanev, that’s always been the case.

Schenn likes to shoot—a lot—similar to Logan Stanley and Colin Miller. He actually does a solid job of clearing the net, reducing shot volume in the low slot. But his overall defensive impact is still negative due to the sheer number of chances he allows.

He plays a physical game, which could be a good thing if it led to positive results. Unfortunately, it doesn’t. His presence leads to fewer penalties drawn by the Jets and more penalties taken by them.

Schenn is a marginal upgrade on Logan Stanley, but that’s where the good news ends. The Jets already have two better options in Haydn Fleury and Ville Heinola, and Schenn’s main advantage is that he’s right-handed.

That said, if we’re talking injury insurance, Schenn is a perfectly serviceable 4th right-shot defenseman—which matters now that Dylan Coghlan is out for the season. In a vacuum, Schenn on the right side is preferable to Stanley playing his off-hand with Fleury or Heinola.

1. Schenn is a significant downgrade from Colin Miller. If Miller is scratched for the sake of “size and grit,” the Jets are actively hurting themselves.

2. Schenn doesn’t fix the Logan Stanley problem. Stanley actively hurts the team’s chances, and Schenn doesn’t change that.

3. A Stanley-Schenn pairing should terrify everyone.

4. The Jets’ biggest defensive issues were transition and puck management. They responded by adding one of the slowest defensemen in the NHL.

Some have suggested that Schenn allows the Jets to feel comfortable dressing Heinola on the left side. The argument is that the Jets want at least one big, gritty, penalty-killing defenseman in the bottom pair at all times.

That may be true, but I’m still skeptical that the Jets would suddenly prioritize Heinola over a guy they’ve healthy-scratched more often than played.

• Shoots a lot but rarely passes, fitting right in with Winnipeg’s third-pairing defenders.

• Can join the cycle or the rush, though that’s not really his game.

• Mostly dumps the puck in when entering the offensive zone. This works well if Lowry or Kupari’s line is on the ice to pressure and recover—less so in other situations.

• Struggles with puck retrievals, likely due to his foot speed.

• Decent at moving the puck out—not efficient, turns it over a lot, but sheer volume means the puck still exits the zone frequently (just often via glass-and-out rather than controlled exits).

• Frequently targeted by opponents on zone entries. He allows a lot, but mostly due to sheer volume rather than a glaring weakness in that area.

Schenn is a perfectly capable 4th RHD. He’s not some underrated gem, but he’s only fine.

The real issue? It’s not about Schenn himself—it’s about how the Jets use him. He doesn’t fix any of the team’s existing problems, and if deployed incorrectly over Miller, he actively makes the team worse.

Closing Thoughts

The trade deadline didn’t end with a bang, but rather a whimper for Jets fans.

I don’t think that the targets the Jets acquired are actively bad if placed in the right role, but they do not strengthen a very good team that has some exploitable weaknesses right now.

The most important predictor of Stanley Cup-winning teams historically has been their 5v5 offense. That’s an area of weakness for the Jets, and also an area of weakness for both of the Jets’ acquisitions.

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t me shitting on the team, and I still think the Jets are going in with one of the stronger rosters in the NHL. I wouldn’t put them as a favorite, but I wouldn’t call them a paper tiger either.

It’s difficult to grade the Jets’ trade deadline performance. Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t actively hurt the Jets’ chances to win, nor did he sell the future for nothing. But the team’s specific weaknesses weren’t addressed.

Also, everything is relative. The Jets didn’t get worse, but most of their competition got better. Whether better enough to be a looming threat remains to be seen.

They came out of the deadline no better, and maybe relatively worse, but they are now more secure against potential injuries.

So, a D? Maybe D+? An F feels too harsh, but it’s hard to give a passing grade too.

The team has been set, and now the rest falls on the players and coaches.