Trade Deadline Preview: Forwards

We look at the trade deadline with a focus on the Winnipeg Jets

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Today, we look at the trade deadline and how these pieces potentially fit for the Winnipeg Jets.

I had long ago planned out this article, but it evolved into a multi-piece series since the Winnipeg Jets’ needs are so nuanced. After all, the Jets are simultaneously a legitimately very good team while also having glaring weaknesses that could potentially be exposed in the postseason.

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FIRST, A RECAP

Part One: We compared the 2024-25 Winnipeg Jets to previous Stanley Cup winners

Part Two: We discussed evidence based roster construction

To recap:

• Goaltending and 5v5 offense are the most important areas for potential contenders. The former is elite for the Jets, but the latter is a struggle.

• Power play, 5v5 defense, and finishing are the next most important areas (in that order), with the Jets performing anywhere from above average to very strong.

• Penalty kill tends to be fairly unimportant in comparison, which is good because the Jets are pretty terrible there… but improving it would still help.

• Forward depth is a team strength and unlikely to be upgraded via trade. However, the top end is lacking (top line at 5v5 and 2C).

• Defense is the opposite, with some elite pieces (Morrissey, Samberg, and Miller) and some suboptimal performers (DeMelo, Pionk, and Stanley).

• The Jets do not need to target size on defense—just good players. Performance models already account for size, and the only study showing the importance of size was heavily flawed.

• Individual past playoff performance seems to be significantly less important than past regular season performance in determining who will help most in the playoffs.

Just for those who missed it, here’s the visual showing the Jets’ team performance compared to past Cup winners:

And here is the Jets’ individual performance after adjusting for ice time and usage:

Finally, the Jets’ line performance at 5v5:

TOP LINE

I want to emphasize that when we discuss the Jets’ top line as a weakness, it’s all relative and requires some nuance. It’s about transitioning from being a good regular-season team to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Looking at each line’s performance relative to historical performance:

• Scheifele line: 50th percentile for a top line

• Lowry line: 90th percentile for a second line (95th for a third)

• Vlad line: 75th percentile for a second line (85th for a third)

• Kupari line: 95th percentile for a fourth line

As Murat Ates said: “Yes, 81/55/13 are great, but great is -average- for a first line. They're spectacular on the power play and that's a big help, to be sure. It's also different.”

The top line has been better than last season’s tire fire, but they are now just average. That improvement deserves praise because it’s part of why the Jets are a much stronger team this season. But it’s still suboptimal for a team aiming to win the Stanley Cup.

The top line isn’t very good defensively, though that’s less of a problem compared to most top lines because the Jets have the Adam Lowry line. However, people might be surprised to learn that they aren’t that great offensively either.

Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi have impressive point production, but much of it comes from non-5v5 minutes.

In 2014 (which had a lower-scoring 5v5 environment), I analyzed historical 5v5 production for different forward roles. On average:

• Top-line forwards score 2.1 points per hour

• Second-line forwards score ~1.8

• Third-line forwards score ~1.45

• Fourth-line/depth forwards score ~1.0

Only Kyle Connor (2.24) is scoring above average, while Scheifele (2.0) and Vilardi (1.95) are below average.

“SECOND LINE”

The Jets essentially run a 2A/2B system for their middle-six forward lines.

• If the team is trailing, the Vlad Namestnikov line is leaned on more.

• If the team is leading, the Adam Lowry line is leaned on more.

I have very few concerns about the Adam Lowry line’s performance, but the Namestnikov line could be improved.

They seem to be mostly carried by Nikolaj Ehlers. Also, while ranking in the 75th percentile is nice in the regular season, it becomes suboptimal in the playoffs when the bottom half of the league is removed.

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SIDE NOTE: This article was written before Gourde and Bjorkstrand were traded. I refuse to delete because I spent so much time on it.

FORWARDS

Centres

It could be argued that the Jets’ biggest hole individually is with Nikolaj Ehlers’ centre.

Tier 1

Ryan O’Reilly

O’Reilly might be a near-perfect option for the Jets, although probably also the most expensive.

He is legitimately good, performing as a legitimate top-line centre for over a decade. At 5v5, he looks very similar to the Winnipeg Jets’ own Adam Lowry (just fewer penalties and slightly better finishing). ROR tilts the ice at both ends, helping the team both offensively and defensively. He does struggle in finishing and setting up goals, but no more than Namestnikov while being better in every other area.

A strong defensive and faceoff presence means that Scott Arniel would be more likely to trust the team’s best forward, Nikolaj Ehlers, in high-leverage situations.

Another asset is that he’s been excellent at special teams. I’m not sure the Jets’ power play can actually get much better than the second-best since 2007-08, but still, any bit helps—especially winning faceoffs for the second unit. Faceoffs may be overrated, but special teams are where they are the most important.

Having someone legitimately good on the penalty kill would be useful. Even if the PK is a low-importance area for most contending teams, it’s still a weakness for the Jets.

The biggest value, though, is O’Reilly’s contract. The Jets have spent a lot of draft capital over the years trying to find themselves a second-line centre. Having O’Reilly there for the next two years at a very affordable $4.5M AAV would be very attractive. His strong two-way play makes him an excellent mentor for Cole Perfetti, Brad Lambert, and Brayden Yager.

He’s also only $4.0M in salary over those two years, which is appetizing for the Jets, where the player’s impact on the salary cap is less of an issue than the actual salary.

Yanni Gourde

The other likely expensive but near-perfect option is Yanni Gourde.

In terms of player performance, Gourde may actually be better than ROR, both in quality and fit.

He’s nearly as good defensively as ROR while being better on the offensive side of things. He’s a bit weaker in finishing but much better at setting up goals.

The biggest thing going for Gourde is that his strength—5v5 offense—is the Jets’ weakest area that matters.

Some would argue that Gourde is a better partner for Ehlers. I’m not certain of that. Sure, Gourde is faster and better offensively, but (to steal from Ates) Ehlers likes to play jazz, and we saw how a smart N/S player who makes room like Lowry can actually work very well.

Another option for the Jets that could work with Gourde on the roster would be placing Ehlers with Lowry and Niederreiter and letting Gourde play with Perfetti and another winger.

The biggest failing for Gourde is his contract status. Gourde represents another UFA band-aid option for the Jets’ 2C hole that has plagued them for so long.

(RIP… now traded)

Jared McCann

McCann is in this tier because his overall impact is just as good, if not better, than the other two. However, I would argue that he’s the third-best option for the Jets given the team’s needs.

He has been very good the past few years, but he represents mostly more of the same.

McCann is middling at 5v5 offense and slightly above average at 5v5 defense. The bulk of his value comes from his exceptional ability to translate chances into goals—something the Jets already are adept at and tends to be more volatile and fleeting.

The Jets hope that their new 2C would be more of one that helps them generate more chances, since they already are among the best at translating them into goals.

In addition, McCann has almost exclusively played on the wing this season, given Seattle prefers Beniers, Stephenson, and Wright as their long-term centres.

McCann is signed for two more seasons at a $5M AAV with a $4.25M salary.

Tier 2

Brock Nelson

Brock Nelson is a player that’s been discussed quite a bit around the Jets (and other teams looking for more punch at centre). Many pundits place Nelson in the first tier, as he tops many trade bait boards, but I place him in the second tier.

Nelson has had an interesting development curve through his career because he started strong defensively at 5v5, then became better offensively at 5v5 while the defense dried up. That’s the opposite of most careers.

He’s always been a strong finisher, and recently has been average in setting up goals as well. He’s generally good on the power play and the penalty kill—except for this season in both cases.

The Islanders have been a pretty terrible team the past few years, so maybe one should give him some benefit of the doubt, but I’d be nervous about the Jets trading 5v5 defense for 5v5 offense.

Sure, 5v5 defense is a strength and 5v5 offense is a need for the team, but the trade-off isn’t one-for-one, and I’m nervous that the Jets can’t carry too many “all offense, no defense” lines while already sending out 81-55-13 together.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Pageau has always been a decent middle-six centre. There was talk about him being a buyout or dead-cap trade candidate; however, a strong season this year has made him more of a coveted deadline acquisition.

The centre has spent most of his season on the Islanders’ third line and still has 30 points. He’s not an optimal 2C, but more of a 3C option with the Jets moving Lowry into a 2C role similar to what Florida does with Bennett or Carolina with Staal.

He still represents an upgrade to the Jets’ centre depth and would help the team at 5v5 chance generation and tilting the ice. He struggles at special teams; however, he has a consistently strong penalty differential impact, which is beneficial for a team with as good of a power play as the Jets.

The biggest asset is that he has one more year on his $5M AAV contract and only a $3.5M salary next season. That’s a pretty nice stopgap in that it reduces the “deadline centre acquisition” bleeding the Jets have had for nearly a decade now while not blocking the Jets’ young centres from moving into the role long-term.

Trevor Zegras

Zegras entered the league with a lot of hype and several flashes of immense skill. However, his impact has never quite reached that level of expectation.

I still think Zegras is a player worth taking a shot at because I’m not sure he’s as bad as he has looked this season. The 23-year-old is still young in terms of developmental curves—most players peak between 24-26 years—and he had been a solid middle-six piece prior to this year.

The drop-off this season is almost exclusively driven by 5v5 defense while playing on a lottery-bound team. A significant factor has been Killorn’s performance with Leason while Zegras was out with injury.

Personally, I think Zegras is worth some risk if Anaheim is looking to flip the young center. It just depends on the price and whether the Jets want to add a $5.75M AAV forward for another season—one with arbitration rights.

I also think Winnipeg, with its strong 5v5 defensive structure, could be an environment where a young forward improves their defensive game. I wouldn’t be surprised if most of Zegras’ defensive struggles are circumstantial rather than indicative of his true ability.

Nick Bjugstad

Personally, I’ve always felt that Bjugstad isn’t as good as many TV pundits suggest. That’s not to say he’s bad, but he’s often overhyped around the trade deadline.

Bjugstad is a very middle-of-the-road player.

He’s been solid at 5v5 chance generation, though a bit weaker defensively. His penalty-killing has also declined over the past few years, but that could be more of a systems issue rather than an individual shortcoming.

I think he’s a fine 3C option—essentially a worse version of Pageau—and one who is a UFA this summer.

Casey Mittelstadt

Mittelstadt has had a very interesting career. During his draft-eligible season, analytical models viewed him as overrated. He ultimately became a legitimate NHLer, but his performance has varied wildly from season to season.

After two good years in Buffalo—mostly due to finishing and setting—Colorado brought him in to fill the same hole the Jets are currently looking to address. That experiment, however, failed.

I’m skeptical that the Avs would help out a divisional rival, and I’m also skeptical that Mittelstadt is the solution in Winnipeg. That said, it’s possible his struggles in Colorado are more about fit than ability, and he could bounce back to his later Buffalo levels with the Jets.

He does provide some certainty with two years remaining at a $5.75M AAV, with salaries of $6M and $4.5M (plus a $1M bonus in the final year).

Tier 3

This tier includes players who likely aren’t much better than Namestnikov but are still likely better than Kupari.

Ryan Donato

Donato may be an exception—he might be an upgrade on Namestnikov—but I’m not entirely convinced.

He has been a decent third-line center, benefitting from some fortunate percentages in the final year of his contract.

He looks relatively better than the rest of this group, but I’m skeptical that he’s a significant upgrade over the players the Jets are currently dressing—aside from Kupari.

Brayden Schenn

People often talk about the need for extra physicality and size in the playoffs. As I noted in my last post, history doesn’t really support that notion, aside from a brief period where defense size had a positive relationship with success. I argued why that was likely spurious while also pointing out that smaller forwards showed a similar positive relationship in the same timeframe.

Schenn is an okay 3C, which would give the Jets two of those—three if you count Gustafsson. He’s not great at 5v5 scoring chance differentials, but he’s a relatively decent finisher and playmaker.

He’s been decent on the power play this year, though he typically struggles there. His penalty-killing has also been an issue.

Dylan Cozens

Uh, not really a fan at that price, to be honest.

In the final year of his contract, Cozens' points-per-hour rate jumped from ~1.5 to 2.5. That led to a $7M AAV contract until 2030, when he’ll be 30. Of course, he then regressed back to ~1.5 points per hour, and now Buffalo appears open to moving him.

He may not be as bad as he has looked this season, but analytics could have predicted that the $7M contract was a mistake.

He could be another decent 3C, but the Jets would likely need Buffalo to retain a significant portion of his salary. I doubt the Sabres are eager to do that. More likely, they’re hoping someone bets on the idea that Cozens' true talent level is closer to 2.5 points per hour and is willing to buy that lottery ticket at full price.

Michael McCarron

While listed as a winger in some places, McCarron has primarily played center in Nashville.

McCarron hasn’t been great in any one area, but he hasn’t been terrible either. His main advantage is being a right-shot upgrade over Kupari while carrying a cheap $900K AAV contract with one more year remaining.

Scott Laughton

My first instinct is: no thanks.

Laughton has been pretty bad for nearly three seasons now. His defensive impact is a disaster, and his offensive impact isn’t much better. Based on his current play, he isn’t even an upgrade over Kupari.

The argument for him is that he was a decent third-line center for five years before his recent decline.

Is it worth taking a flyer (pun intended) on a local kid just because he used to be good enough for the job?

I’m skeptical, but maybe the Jets give it a shot.

Wingers

The Jets are much stronger on the wings than at center, so winger isn’t a major need. That said, adding a legitimate top-six winger could still improve the roster.

While neither Perfetti nor Appleton has been an anchor, both are forwards who could benefit from an upgrade.

In a perfect world, the Jets add a winger capable of driving a line alongside their new center acquisition and one of Connor or Vilardi. That would allow them to promote Ehlers to the top line as an internal upgrade.

Alternatively, the other best-case scenario would be the upgrade that strengthens the top line and helps push the Jets to the next level.

Tier 1

Oliver Bjorkstrand

I’ve been a Bjorkstrand fan since his prospect years, so I’m biased. But I’m biased in part because I like good players. Bjorkstrand hails from Denmark, just like Ehlers, but the comparisons continue further.

If 5v5 offense is an area of the Jets’ weakness, then Bjorkstrand is a great solution. He’s scoring at a nearly identical 5v5 point-per-hour clip as Ehlers, is excellent in transition, on the rush, and in cycle offense. He shoots a lot but is a better setter than shooter.

He carries a positive defensive impact, mostly due to not playing in the defensive zone and solid transition rather than being good defensively.

Like Ehlers, Bjorkstrand is a forward whose overall play has been wildly underrated and underappreciated because people rely too much on point totals, which are heavily dependent on usage.

Unlike Ehlers, his sG impact on power play chance generation isn’t that great, but it has been strong in past seasons.

Here’s the best part… if you can’t put Ehlers on the top line because his “jazz” style doesn’t please Scheifele and the coaches, then cloning him with nearly the same impact but without the “jazz” style is the next best solution.

Vilardi’s strong forechecking and game along the boards and in front of the net have helped Connor and Scheifele to be much better together than past non-Ehlers varieties, but having someone who transitions as well as Ehlers and tilts the ice could be even better.

Alex Tuch

Tuch doesn’t carry the same power play impact he had in Vegas, and his setting and finishing performance this year has dipped a bit, but overall, Tuch is still a very good forward. I also now view power play impact to be heavily role- and usage-dependent (see Ehlers this season).

He helps both offensively and defensively, and—until this season—also on the penalty kill.

He’s a decent transitional player and good at shooting the puck, especially close to the net.

My one real grievance may be that Tuch doesn’t recover pucks from dump-ins as much as you’d like for someone with his size.

Reilly Smith

Reilly Smith has consistently been a very good top-six forward throughout his long career playing for multiple good teams. His underlying performance hasn’t dipped, but his finishing luck seems to have dried up.

Whether that’s because he’s lost his fastball or poor luck remains to be seen.

Still, he’s a top-six caliber forward that helps his team win games by tilting the ice. His power play performance hasn’t been great in New York, but as I mentioned before, I don’t take too much from that when he has a solid history of playing well there. He’s also been a great penalty killer for the past 10+ years.

The Rest

I’m going to lump the rest together because they basically dip in quality quite a bit afterward. Also, it doesn’t make sense because the Jets have really good depth at wing, so if the player isn’t legitimately top-six, spending assets to add a player that doesn’t really move the needle doesn’t make sense.

There are some intriguing pieces, like Jack Quinn and Brock Boeser, who both have been good in flashes. I don’t know enough about Justin Brazeau to comment on his decent year.

Luke Kunin and Evander Kane are players that should be avoided, as should Josh Anderson.

I liked Brandon Tanev during his time here, as well as Joel Armia, but I am uncertain they are sizeable upgrades in the positions they would take.

Rickard Rakell is a skater that’s always been rumored for the Jets in trade deadlines and free agency, but it has never come to fruition. He’s not nearly as good as he once was, but maybe he could help the bottom six.

DEFENDERS

Tomorrow. :)

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CLOSING THOUGHTS

The Jets are a good team. They are elite in some areas of performance and individuals and have some weaknesses elsewhere. The good news is that the Jets can try to improve those weaknesses at the trade deadline.

The best-case scenario spots are a second-line center, a top-four right-shot defender while moving out one of Neal Pionk or Dylan DeMelo, and a third-pairing left-shot defender.

That said, the Jets do have enough room to add two top-six forward pieces rather than one if they really want to push things to another level. That winger would have to be someone good enough to really push the team, as depth is already a strength for the team.

Of course, two of my favorite pieces (Gourde and Bjorkstrand) have already been traded while I edited this article. However, there are always skaters who are moved that no one foresaw, and this write-up helps show what the Jets should be looking for if they want to improve an already impressive team.