Wednesday Premium Content: The Solution Is To Not Repeat The Same Mistake
We look at the Winnipeg Jets microstatistics, and answer other analytical questions surrounding the team
Welcome to this week's edition of our paid-subscriber hockey analysis series, where we explore the intricate world of hockey statistics, analytical theory, player development, and the Winnipeg Jets.
In this installment, we delve into the Jets' performances in microstatistics, analyze the profiles of five potential trade deadline targets, and engage in a discussion on identifying the team's weaknesses and proposing solutions.
Let's dive straight into the analysis and uncover the insights that await.
MICROSTATISTICS WEEKLY REVIEW
GAME 48: Winnipeg Jets 0 - Pittsburgh Penguins 3
At 5v5, the Winnipeg Jets controlled the shot differential and expected goals, although it's essentially even once you adjust for score effects and venue bias.
There were three primary storylines to the Jets' game:
Special teams were the difference-maker once again, as the Jets' power play was unable to produce many chances, let alone finish any. Meanwhile, the Penguins converted twice on the 5-minute penalty kill created from Brenden Dillon’s match penalty.
The Jets' top line lost their matchups. The Jets' top line has been an issue more often than not for the team ever since the schism of the Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi trio.
The Jets cannot score. For the third time in seven games, the Jets were shut out, with the team scoring one goal once and two goals twice in that same span. The lack of offense has been a problem.
I'm leaving Mark Scheifele’s disallowed goal in the sample. It is something they did, and it does show what they can do, even if it didn't happen on the scoresheet.
Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers were able to insulate Sean Monahan’s lack of transition. I thought Monahan did play well overall. I do wonder if the Jets would be better served swapping Ehlers with Kyle Connor. Although, neither Monahan nor Connor have a pretty history of strong defensive performances.
Josh Morrissey had a strong game offensively, but he did have a few instances of bad puck management during the game, one of which led to the Penguins' lone 5v5 goal.
Dylan Samberg continues to perform well in an elevated role for the Jets, who have been missing a top-four left defenseman for the third game in a row. Samberg has shown strong results all year, although most of them have come in a fairly sheltered role. However, every time he's been called upon to step up in the top four, he has performed very well.
While I like Dillon and believe he has played well, especially alongside Pionk, as a pending UFA who is getting older, the Jets might be best served by letting him walk this summer. Of course, this decision will depend on costs.
If Dillon's contract extension is affordable enough to make him a positive value-to-cost third-pairing option, then the team may be better served by considering moving Nate Schmidt (or Neal Pionk) and bringing in Ville Heinola next year.
MICROSTATISTICS SEASON UPDATE
The Jets recent struggles are predominately on offense, so I thought I would highlight the Jets’ offensive microstatistics.
First off we have scoring chances, which are unblocked shot attempts in the slot or just outside from high danger passes (low-to-high or cross-seam). They are slightly subjective but I do my best to be as objective as possible.
Other than Monahan, who has very limited sample thus far, the Jets top-six forwards are the ones making the most chances. However, the bottom-six is not as optomized when it comes to deployment.
Vladislav Namestnikov’s results here are inflated relative to the rest with all his ice time with players like Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers, but still he comes off looking strong, as does Morgan Barron. The two are both on the Jets’ fourth line, and so hopefully they will still produce secondary scoring in their limited role.
It becomes more inefficient as we move down. Nino Niederreiter hasn’t been as strong as the first quarter of the season, prior to his extension. Axel Jonsson-Fjallby has been one of the better offensive players for the Jets, outperforming middle-six winger Mason Appleton or fourth line but often in the top-six Alex Iafallo, but hit waivers yesterday.
The Jets do create more offense from the players expected to generate it, but not to the extent one would hope given their contracts and roles. Apart from Josh Morrissey, the best Jets players are essentially producing offense at the level of decent defensive defenders. Unfortunately, Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt do not fit this description.
Dylan Samberg continues to impress. While he may not be known for his puck movement or transition game, his high efficiency in transition allows him to come out on top in terms of expected shots (a sum of all controlled and uncontrolled transitions weighted by the probability of having the next shot on net).
Now, let's examine zone transition efficiency and defensive microstatistics...
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