Wednesday Premium Content: Trade Deadline Preview
We look at the Winnipeg Jets microstatistics, and answer other analytical questions surrounding the team
Welcome to this week's edition of our paid-subscriber hockey analysis series, where we explore the intricate world of hockey statistics, analytical theory, player development, and the Winnipeg Jets.
In this installment, we preview the trade deadline for the Jets.
Let's dive straight into the analysis and uncover the insights that await.
MICROSTATISTICS WEEKLY REVIEW
GAME 58: JETS 1 - STARS 4
The Jets were both outscored and outperformed in expected goals. While most of the expected goals came during penalty kill situations, Dallas still had the edge over the Jets at 5v5.
However, I wouldn’t characterize the Jets' performance as "bad," but rather they were simply outclassed. The Stars came prepared with a well-executed game plan, applying heavy pressure and effectively clogging up lanes. Unlike in previous games, the Jets didn’t make glaring errors but struggled to generate momentum. They found themselves trapped, forced to make plays from disadvantageous positions, while Dallas maintained relentless pressure.
This game exposed the Jets' lack of pace on certain lines. While Winnipeg isn't necessarily a slow team overall, there are instances where they seem to play at a slower tempo, which ultimately hinders their performance.
GAME 59: JETS 5 - HURRICANES 3
TBD: I haven’t been able to track this game yet. I have it scheduled to track on Thursday.
GAME 60: JETS 5 - SABRES 2
At one juncture, it appeared the Jets might lose the game despite outperforming the opposition. Rick Bowness opted to shuffle the lines, even though all of the Jets' top three lines boasted an xGoal share above 70% at the time.
Although the Jets were dominating, they weren't getting the bounces they needed. Following the lineup adjustment, the Jets began to experience better puck luck, leading to increased goal production without significant changes in underlying performance.
It's worth mentioning that, disregarding the historical performance of the 81-55 combination and the fact that the Jets were already performing at full capacity, the lineup shuffle isn't entirely baseless. Vlad Namestnikov was having a genuinely strong game, and the second line lacked effective puck-moving forwards.
Josh Morrissey notably elevated his game, performing at a level beyond even his typically strong performance, which was highly impressive.
GAME 61: JETS 3 - KRAKEN 4
It's somewhat ironic that Bowness played the Lowry line as sparingly as he did, considering that he finally had an excuse given how well they performed. They maintained Corsi and xGoals percentages above 80% and managed to score twice!
Nino Niederreiter particularly stood out on a line that was already performing exceptionally. He generated four scoring chances and made multiple end-to-end rushes with the puck, showcasing his skills effectively.
MICROSTATISTICS SEASON UPDATE
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