What does Jonnathan Toews bring to the Winnipeg Jets?
What does Jonnathan Toews bring to the Winnipeg Jets?
As we just recently discussed, the Winnipeg Jets are a pretty darn good team, but an incomplete team. They have a few holes that if filled would really push them into another level.
I am not going to go over the very obvious, and very significant variable of Toews’ silence surrounding Kyle Beach, here discussed by the very same reporter, and what that says about character, leadership, and other intangibles. I’m not very good at those kind of things… although I kind of just did.
I am, however, good at showing a player’s true value, what measurable impacts they actually bring, and what that all entails. Regardless of my opinion on off-ice issues, Toews to Winnipeg is a heavily discussed topic and may actually happen.
So what does this 34 year old player bring to the Jets?
Point Production
McIntyre suggests that Toews still provides some offense, and mentions the centre's 13 goals and 27 points. There is a problem with looking at scoring without context. That production is under particular usage and deployment, which would not continue in Winnipeg.
Much of Toews production comes from playing on the primary power play unit in Chicago, and it is highly unlikely that Toews usurps any of Scheifele, Dubois, Ehlers, or Connor on the top group if they are all healthy. And even then, both Wheeler and Perfetti would likely sit ahead in the queue for any promotion.
At 5v5, Toews has scored four goals and eight assists. While that is not terrible production, his point rank on the Jets would fall to seventh.
Now it gets a bit more convoluted as we go deeper…
Another factor is that his 5v5 deployment would likely change as well. Toews has spent almost two-thirds of the season deployed as a second line player and about one-third as a top line player. His 5v5 scoring likely dips in Winnipeg simply from less ice time.
His productioin pace this season of 1.3 points per hour is well below average for any one in a top six role, and even below the 1.5 point per hour of an average third line player.
Now, there is some defense in pointing out the mess that is Chicago. While Toews’ 1.3 point pace is more typical of a high-end fourth line player, it actually ranks highly on the Blackhawks. However, Toews’ primary linemates of Raddysh, Kurashev, Johnson, Athanasiou, and Kane (in that order) as a whole group have scored just as well with Toews as away.
For that reason, I’m skeptical that Toews would be driving a lot of offense playing for the Jets. Maybe he spikes up a bit and gives more typical third line production, but if so that would be more as a passanger than a driver.
Faceoffs
Toews has historically been solid at winning faceoffs, and has done exceptionally well this season.
Faceoffs matter… but they often get way over focused on in how much they matter. Why is that? There are multiple small things that add up to why:
Winning allows you to start with possession but isn’t the only factor. Faceoffs only account for 20% of how good or bad a team is at possession.
In many ways, faceoffs are like most 50/50 puck battles that occur throughout the game.
About one-third of even strength faceoffs take place in the neutral zone, which are very low impact. On average, you need just over 100 more faceoff wins than loses to equate to a +1 goal differential improvement. (Which at 60% FO% means you need about 500 faceoffs for 1 goal value)
Looking outside of neutral zone faceoffs, the defending team is heavily more likely to be the next one scored on… even if they win the faceoff. You have to subtract difference to get the actual value of a win vs loss, but your brain and memory doesn’t work that way.
Most players and teams are fairly close to 50% win rate.
Looking at Toews specifically:
Toews has started 703 5v5 shifts with a faceoff and we’ll pretend he’s taken all of these (which he hasn’t).
39% have been in the neutral zone, or 272 faceoffs… or about 0.5 goal +/- in value at a 60% win rate.
431 have been in defensive or attacking zone, which at his win rate is about a +100 faceoff win differential… or about +2.45 goal differential in value.
So we estimate Toews’ elite faceoff performance this season to being valued at about 3 goals (at 5v5).
Three goals is certainly better than 0, but it gives some context to volume. The spread in goal differential between top and bottom 5 percentile Corsi skaters on the third line is worth about 10 goals.
And, I would suspect that Toews would be taking substantially fewer faceoffs even as a specialist simply due to fewer shifts and ice time.
Usage and Role
On a healthy Jets roster, I see two potential deployments Bowness would likely utalize.
The first look would be restructuring the Jets into more of a top-nine plus checking line like set up, similar to what we saw with the Jets in 2017-18 after the acquisition of Stastny. Scheifele and Stastny centred the two top lines, and the Jets carried a third offensive line centred with Little, primarily with Perreault and one of Roslovic or Armia. The Copp-Lowry-Tanev line was shifted into a 3B / 4th line role.
I’m not certain that 1-2 of Maenalanen, Gagner, Jonsson-Fjallby, or Kuhlman with Toews has quite the same punch. Maybe if the Jets were to also add a top-six winger, then you could see one of Perfetti or Wheeler lifting that theoretical 3rd scoring line.
The other potential role could be on the wing on the shutdown line with Barron and Lowry. While Toews is thought as a defensive player, it has been nearly a decade since Toews has looked good defensively by most models, and nearly half a decade for penalty kill impact.
Perhaps being on the wing (but still taking faceoffs) would actually improve his defensive impact and optimize his usage, but I’m again skeptical.
People might be upset with my analysis of Toews being painted as a defensive liability, but if you hurt your team defensively for nearly a decade… it’s hard to see it any other way.
From Moneyball: “If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?”
Overall Impact
The above graph is weighted Goals Above Replacement, the same model from the article I linked in the opening paragraph. That said, I have taken out all special teams impacts, looking strictly at even strength and penalty differentials.
As you can see, this does not paint a pretty picture for Toews. It is true that there are intangible effects to performance with playing on terrible teams. We can look at Doughty, who looked to “mail it in” when LA was a struggling team, but looks better now that there is something to play for:
However, if we take what people tend to say about Toews at face value, I’m not sure he’s the type to “mail it in” just because Chicago is struggling. Especially when Toews’ chart looks much more like a typical aging curve:
Final Thoughts
I wasn’t planning on writing this. I ignored the rumours and suggestions the first few times it popped up. But it hasn’t gone away, so I decided to finally take a look into it.
What would the Jets likely get from Toews?
They would get a player scoring at a third-to-fourth line rate, helping out the second power play unit a bit, providing some secondary offense while being weak defensively. There would be some value in winning faceoffs, but their overall play on 5v5 would heavily counter that impact.
The truth is that other than some completely unknown value of having won before, so that they can tell stories of what it is like, and being a local kid, I don’t see any argument.
There is no real tangible, measurable reason for the Jets to waste assets (plus, again, the issues of bringing in someone silent around the sexual assault of Kyle Beach) acquiring a player that doesn’t move the needle for a struggling team, when there are players available who actually do.
Age really does come to us all, doesn’t it?