Winnipeg Jets lose 5-1 against the St. Louis Blues; what's wrong?

The series is only tied at two, but the Jets still make the same mistakes.

The Winnipeg Jets lose their second stinker in a row against the St. Louis Blues, and people are starting to question if these Jets are actually real or merely frauds like last playoffs.

Let’s review this game but also the series tied at two as a whole to try and find the answers.

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First off, I have to apologize to all the Winnipeg Jets fans out there… I realized the Jets have lost every game I have not worn Jets paraphernalia (sometimes my daughters pick out my t-shirts because they think they are “helping”).

Sorry everyone.

Winnipeg Jets 1 - St Louis Blues 5

xG, or expected goals, is usually an unblocked shot differential (goals, saves, and missed shots), but each shot is adjusted for shot quality factors (like distance from goal, angle, handiness of shooter, shot type, etc.). That said, HockeyViz.com’s xGoal model is unique in that it estimates shot quality for blocked shots as well.

For the second game in a row, the Jets allowed their opponent to create the lion’s share of the chances. What’s even more concerning is how few of the Jets’ chances are coming from their top players.

Where is the supposed best line in hockey? Where is the Jets’ dominant shutdown line that can provide support scoring? Where is the Jets’ second line that’s supposed to be the bulk of the team’s secondary scoring?

The Winnipeg Jets have scored a total of five goals over the past three games combined. The Blues have matched or eclipsed that total twice over the past few games.

Yes, Jordan Binnington has outplayed Connor Hellebuyck, but even before you account for goaltending, Winnipeg’s performance has been concerning.

The above graph is essentially the running xG differential. What it shows is that the Jets fell asleep at the wheel from the start and gave the Blues an early — and well-deserved — two-goal advantage. Most people felt that. But it also shows that, in terms of chance-swapping, the Jets and Blues were roughly even from that point onward.

For the third game this series, the Jets started a bit slow off the hop. However, it didn’t take long for Winnipeg to turn things around.

They really started putting the pressure on the Blues for the middle third of the first period. For that short span, it really looked like the outcome would have been the opposite.

Kyle Connor scored his third goal of the post-season, only for Winnipeg to almost instantly let go of the gas. While Hellebuyck did not play remotely to his regular season self, it was the Jets’ skaters who cracked 5 minutes before the netminder allowed his first goal against with less than 30 seconds remaining in the first.

The Jets did not contain the Blues for the rest of the game.

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Who to blame for the Winnipeg Jets’ woes?

I showed this visual of the Jets’ performance in the regular season with Hellebuyck in net in my last article:

The basic idea is that a “quality performance” (from the goalie or skaters) was a game where the other party only had to perform at a league-average level or better to win.

The rest breaks down as:

• Team win: both had quality performances

• Goalie steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the goalie

• Skater steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the skaters

• Team loss: team loses without any quality performance

• Goalie loss: team loses despite a quality skater performance

• Skater loss: team loses despite a quality goalie performance

I agree with others that Hellebuyck has been terrible this series, just like he was last year’s series as well.

However, in both of the Jets’ losses their skaters were outplayed by the Blues. Over the regular season, one of the Jets’ strengths was that when the skaters dropped the ball, Hellebuyck carried them, and vice versa. This has not been the case for the post-season and is a repeat of the problem last year against Colorado.

So, it’s partially unlucky that the Jets haven’t been able to diversify their performances. Hellebuyck has struggled when the Jets’ skaters have struggled, and the Jets’ skaters have struggled for two-thirds of the time that Hellebuyck has struggled.

It’s also not that altogether surprising given that…

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Winnipeg Jets still not learning from last year’s mistakes

There are a few problems plaguing the Jets. Like many situations, we all want simple answers but life is rarely simple.

The Jets are struggling to adapt. They are chasing the game to try and match their opponents’ physicality rather than play their own game. Their best player and superstar is struggling in the playoffs once again.

Also, they also haven’t fixed roster problems we’ve seen for a few years now. Sure, the Jets won the Presidents’ Trophy despite these weaknesses in their roster, and yes, the regular season is a marginally better measure of team performance than the more desired success of the Stanley Cup.

However, the playoffs still show why you want to fix these issues in the regular season. The Jets won despite these issues in the regular season, not because of them.

Now that their normal strengths (goaltending and secondary scoring) are failing them, their weaknesses are standing out even to casual observers.

The Jets’ top line has been an issue pretty much since Blake Wheeler’s developmental curve crashed hard in 2020-21. They’ve had flashes, like when Ehlers has been elevated to the top spot, but otherwise it’s not been there.

This season was better than last year, but only marginally so. The Jets’ top line of Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi are the most commonly used 5v5 line in the NHL. They have 22% more TOI than the second most commonly used trio this year.

That’s despite disastrous results last season. There were many that pointed out the line had been better this year, but the results were mixed based on which metric you looked at. Goal differential wise they were night and day better, and expected goal differential improved to about average for a top line, but by Corsi — the more predictive shot metric — the team was actually still very weak.

Then when Vilardi went down, they swapped in Iafallo. Iafallo is an undervalued and versatile forward, but not a top line player. Again, the line outscored opposition despite very poor results the previous season, but shot metrics once again suggested that this trio wasn’t good enough.

Now we’re in the playoffs, where marginal strengths and weaknesses become magnified, and the Jets’ top line is once again being outshot, out-chanced, and outscored by a staggering margin.

I understand that this is a pervasive problem throughout the NHL. Coaches are risk-averse to a fault and are unlikely to change the roster when the team is having success, with the exception of injuries and…

…trade acquisitions.

Now don’t get me wrong; these are not WAR-like metrics.

They do not adjust for usage, and they do not account for things like Stanley’s errors causing two penalties that led directly to goals against. They are only part of the greater picture; a large part, but only a part.

However, it is embarrassingly obvious that Colin Miller is in every shape and form a better option than Luke Schenn, or any other depth defensive piece on the Jets.

Sure, Miller’s results above are unsustainable and he’s not that good. Yes, they are from a very small sample. And, yes, upgrading your 3RD spot isn’t enough to turn the Jets from 2-2 to 4-0. Heck, the Jets lost the game he played.

Still, it’s death from a thousand paper cuts where the Jets can’t seem to get anything right and what normally insulates them from such errors — like Hellebuyck — is no longer operational.

And it’s always been like this; this isn’t new:

I hate to say I told you so, because I honestly wish I was wrong more when it comes to these things.

Pom-pom fans love to point out that I’m not the coach of the NHL’s top team in the standings, but what I am is an analyst who specializes in picking out a team’s weakness and where they need to improve to better their odds.

The Jets were a very good team due to depth at forward on the wings, two star defenders, and a generational goaltender.

Now the Jets are without two (one may return soon but the other is their best) of those wingers, one star defender has been playing very poorly, and their generational goaltender is putting up a generationally bad performance.

That’s why you want to diversify your strengths and stamp out your weaknesses — so that no matter what hits you, you can rely on something else to push you through…