Winnipeg Jets lose, and lose ugly

But not all is lost

I just finished watching the game. The results are fresh in my mind...

Do I really have to talk about it?

Okay, fine. I will. And I’ll try to actually dig into the good and the bad. Despite the score, not all was terrible — but as the score shows, there was a lot more bad than good.

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As noted by one Redditor, not all of you are regular, OG readers of TFH — so not everyone knows what every graph represents.

xG, or expected goals, is usually an unblocked shot differential (goals, saves, and missed shots), but each shot is adjusted for shot quality factors (like distance from goal, angle, handiness of shooter, shot type, etc.). That said, HockeyViz.com’s xGoal model is unique in that it estimates shot quality for blocked shots as well.

The above shows every shot attempt and its xGoal value. And while the Jets definitely performed worse in both shot quantity and quality — as Mark Scheifele would say — they couldn’t hit the fricken’ net.

The above graph is essentially the running xG differential.

What it shows is that the Jets fell asleep at the wheel from the start and gave the Blues an early — and well-deserved — two-goal advantage. Most people felt that. But it also shows that, in terms of chance-swapping, the Jets and Blues were roughly even from that point onward.

I don’t blame Connor Hellebuyck for the loss, and even if he had played well, the Jets probably still lose. But… he’s not doing himself any favours in brushing off the “regular season performer” accusations.

Accusations that I’ve defended him against previously — but I can’t do that here.

In an older post discussing Hellebuyck’s case for the Hart, I included this visual:

The basic idea is that a “quality performance” (from the goalie or skaters) was a game where the other party only had to perform at a league-average level or better to win.

The rest breaks down as:

• Team win: both had quality performances

• Goalie steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the goalie

• Skater steal: team wins with only a quality performance from the skaters

• Team loss: team loses without any quality performance

• Goalie loss: team loses despite a quality skater performance

• Skater loss: team loses despite a quality goalie performance

So far in the playoffs, Winnipeg has one team win, one skater steal, and one team loss.

I don’t always agree with these charts. They serve their purpose, but I find the environmental and usage context is lacking. They’re heavily influenced by PDO, and people seem way too confident in what they claim from them.

Still, I don’t disagree with who’s at the top and bottom of the skater list.

I said a few weeks before the playoffs that Luke Schenn’s value came almost entirely from making Logan Stanley expendable on the penalty kill (and for a time, entirely). I also said I feared the Jets' brass weren't aware that their third-best defensive skater by impact was the guy most likely to be scratched once everyone was healthy.

Sometimes I wish I was wrong more often than I am.

And this definitely was one of those games where I felt that way about a lot of poor performers.

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Most of the microstats will be behind the paywall for our premium subscribers, but here are a few things to kick us off...

First, the overall performance was bad to outright terrible from almost — but only almost — everyone. I tracked about 400 events in each of the first two games. This game? Only 276. A big reason why: Winnipeg couldn’t push play into the Blues' zone or pressure them with their forecheck.

Also, for the third straight game, the vast majority of the Jets’ defensive zone troubles came from Schenn and Stanley being unable to move the puck with speed and pace. Only this time, Neal Pionk decided to join them.

Almost every Jets goal against came directly — or indirectly (via penalties in the defensive zone) — from poor puck management.

Hockey is a game of inches, but it’s also a game of mistakes. The team that makes the most mistakes is usually the one that loses.

So… why are the Jets dressing the players who make the most mistakes with the puck?

Anyway, let’s dig into these microstats a bit deeper...