Monday Review: Previewing the Jets vs Avs series
Plus Jets weekly review and preview, prospects update, and trending news.
In the latest edition of The Five Hohl's Monday Review, we'll recap the Winnipeg Jets' sweep in their Central Division road trip, preview the upcoming match ups for this week, updates on the performance of top prospects, and preview the Jets match up against the Colorado Avalanche.
JETS WEEKLY REVIEW
I joked last week that “This is the real test!” If it was, the Winnipeg Jets passed with flying colours.
Winnipeg (106) skipped over the Avalanche (104) in the standings in the battle for home advantage. The Jets have also put the final outcome in their hands by improving their points percentage to 0.663 since both teams only have two games remaining.
The vibes are good, the team is running, and hopefully, this is a sign of things to come. The Jets also have some comfort with a better goal differential (+57 vs +47), regulation wins (44 vs 41), and ROW (50 vs 47).
Examining even-strength performance rates through RAPM adjusted via evolving-hockey.com, the Jets move into first for 5v5 goal differential (+0.716) after being second to the Canucks for what seems like months. In shot metrics, the Jets have seen split movement. They move up from eleventh to tenth in expected goals (+0.202) but move down from eleventh to twelfth in Corsi differential (+3.37).
I should note, the Jets' RAPM Corsi differential actually improved, but their ranking fell due to another team jumping over.
Now, let’s delve into the general trends in overall performance from hockeyviz.com.
The shortened version is we see improvement, which should be expected with a three-win streak.
The Jets' 5v5 offensive generation, as seen in the top-left visual, combining shot quantity and quality, takes a small step back, although it is still above the league average and the average performance of the Jets over the season.
In the top right, the Jets' ability to create chances on the power play stopped its climb back to average and remains unchanged from last week. The Jets have been scoring more on the power play, so that could mean too small of a sample size increase to push the needle had the Jets been “unlucky.” Maybe…
Looking at finishing in the center-top visual, the Jets have clawed their way to league average after a long dip — or really, one goal below average or a half below per 100 xG. Obviously, a lot of the improvement came from the Jets’ 7-0 routing of the Avs.
Transitioning to the bottom left, the team’s 5v5 defensive performance actually takes a step back by a percentage point. The Jets played well, but they had some early leads, and they got leaky after. That should be expected given score effects, but there’s also information in not releasing the gas pedal.
In the bottom-right visual, the Jets' penalty kill remains unchanged and the most glaring weakness for the team.
In the bottom-middle quadrant, the Jets’ goaltending is back! After a bit of a three-week tumble, the team bounces back to 79.6 goals against allowed for every 100 expected goals.
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
The Jets flew into Nashville for the start of their very important Central Division road trip, and the early signs were very scary. The Jets early on got into penalty trouble, the Wild were pressing, and scored an early goal of a comedy of errors with Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, and Dylan DeMelo.
Then the Jets took over and put three in. Afterward, the Wild did control most of the play, but the Jets did have a pretty strong 3-1 lead at that point. However, there’s a reason why analytics suggest you normally shouldn’t let go of the throttle. The Predators were able to even things out with two goals in the third.
Ehlers and Perfetti were sat after allowing a goal against right after their power play expired. While I would not defend their performance in the game, I don’t believe they were the only or worst offenders on the team.
The Jets did win the game after a solid 2-on-1 rush by Connor and Scheifele, although the two were close to losing the game just second prior.
The Jets moved along into Dallas for what was a bit of a back and forth in terms of the territorial and scoring chance battle, but the Jets had the goaltending and finishing advantage this game leading them to victory.
A lot of chatter has gone on about the top line, but they did play legitimately well this game against Dallas. Jets did allow a lot of push back in the third, and there was a legit risk to lose the lead with that pushback, but Laurent Brossoit held strong.
This game was fun. Sure, the top line got buried in shots and chances, even before the second period was over, but who cares. It was fun.
The only reason why I went to Twitter about it was because of a poorly reasoned out subtweet that was essentially a strawman and appeal to authority all wrapped up in one.
I have said it before and I will say it again: I think Rick Bowness has done a good job with the Jets overall. However, my job in hockey was to find the value in the margins and so that’s why I nitpick. Some of these nitpicks aren’t small either.
But again, this game was fun.
JETS WEEKLY PREVIEW
The Jets have two games remaining. Despite clinching already, there’s still things to play for. The team plays for home ice advantage against the Avs, individual performance, future contracts, and their pride.
Jets host the Seattle Kraken, who have been struggling lately, especially at 5v5. They have generated some offense but allowed just as much while losing the PDO battle.
Jordan Eberle has been great for them, and he’s earned a two-year, $4.75M contract extension. He will be 36 when he hits UFA, yet it seems like yesteryear that he was being drafted by the Oilers.
On defense, the Kraken perform best as a committee, with Fleury, Dumoulin, Dunn, and Oleksiak all solid-to-great at 5v5. Adjusting for score, opponent, schedule, and such, the Kraken have actually been better defensively at 5v5 than the Jets.
The Jets might actually have an edge on special teams, but we’ll see for sure.
It is a rematch of the two former 5v5 PDO and goal differential leading teams.
Vancouver only needs one point in their next two games to assure they keep Edmonton from taking the top of the Pacific from them.
Vancouver does not create much at 5v5, but they finish well, especially at the point, and they also create a lot on the power play. Defensively, they are very strong at 5v5, more than the Jets, and are generally okay on the PK. Their previously very hot goaltending has faltered somewhat over the past 30 games or so.
Hughes on their blue line stirs the drink that is the Canucks, and he may justly win the Norris this year. At forward, they have lots of pieces playing well, although deadline acquisition Lindholm is not one of them.
PROSPECT RECAP
MANITOBA MOOSE
The Moose are in the playoffs! They split their series against Iowa, clinching their position in the playoffs. They currently sit fifth in the Central Division with 67 points.
They have one game visiting the top-of-the-division Milwaukee Admirals and a home-and-home against the fourth-place Texas Stars.
Dylan Anhorn got a game in, being paired with Ville Heinola. Also, Colby Barlow played his first pro game as well. The Moose have also signed Connor Levis from the WHL, who may or may not get a game in the remaining three.
I don’t expect much, if anything, from Barlow or Levis during these last few games. It is good experience for them to get their feet wet as they go back to the OHL and WHL respectively next season to hopefully dominate and drive their respective teams.
The split games were big ones for AHL veterans. Kyle Capobianco scored a goal and had four assists. Jeffrey Viel had two goals and an assist. Kristian Reichel had three goals and an assist.
I’m behind in my viewings of the Moose, but I’ll make sure to watch more of their games come playoffs.
AROUND THE WORLD
No changes for the regular season other than Zachary Nehring playing his final two games of the regular season, with no points.
The playoffs continue:
Rutger McGroarty’s team was eliminated in the Frozen Four tournament, where McGroarty had no points. Eyes are on his decision to turn pro or to return to Michigan next year. They are losing a lot of talent, but Michigan has always had a very strong recruiting class most seasons, and this next year is no different. I personally don’t think he has much more to learn in the NCAA (hockey-wise, maybe not academics) and could do well playing for the Moose next season.
Pavel Kraskovsky’s Lokomotive swept Traktor in the KHL semifinals. They are awaiting game seven for the other side, to see if they face Metallurg Mg or Avtomobilist. He has one goal and six assists in 16 postseason games. I always enjoyed watching Kraskovsky and thought he was an intriguing sixth-rounder, but I’m skeptical of his chances of ever coming over. He’s signed for the next two years for his hometown team, which takes him until he’s 29 years old. I will continue to follow him this playoff run but will drop him next year.
If you get a chance to watch Salomonsson play, you should. Watching prospects in leagues like the SHL isn’t always great because they often get such little ice time. However, Salomonsson led his team with 24:50 TOI in his team’s near comeback from a 3-0 deficit. Also, Salomonsson is very fun to watch. Skellefteå has two more tries at closing the series they currently lead 3-2. Salomonsson now has one goal and three assists in nine games played. He has the seventh-highest TOI/GP of all SHL defenders in the playoffs despite not playing on either power-play unit regularly and second unit for the PK. He currently carries a 54.6% Corsi in the playoffs.
Jacob Julien has three assists in the London Knights’ four-game sweep in the first round and a goal and two assists in their two wins against the Kitchener Rangers. The Knights are winning by committee, as they have seven forwards with 6-to-8 points over their six playoff games.
Zachary Nehring playoffs start today as Sioux Falls faces Tri-City.
I forgot to give updates on Dom DiVincentiis. He played very well in North Bay’s first playoff game but was injured partway through the first period of the second game. DiVincentiis has not played since with the Battalion winning that series 4-1, and currently lead Sudbury 2-0. Mike McIvor, DiVincentiis’ backup, has a 0.916 save percentage thus far. He may not have the starting role back when healthy.
CURRENT NEWS: Jets vs Avs
The Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets are destined to play each other in the first round of the playoffs. However, home ice advantage is still up for grabs, with Jets claiming it if either they get one more point or the Avs lose their next game.
PAST STANLEY CUP WINNING TEAM SIMULARITY
The Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets are destined to play each other in the first round of the playoffs. However, home-ice advantage is still up for grabs, with the Jets claiming it if either they get one more point or the Avs lose their next game.
The above values are the same as the six visuals in the Weekly Review section. We will compare the two and how they perform relative to previous cup winners.
I’ve used this methodology before, and it tells us a few things. Teams need to be good to win, but not all Stanley Cup-winning teams are equally good. There’s also more than one way to win, and different teams have had different strengths and weaknesses.
In general, playoff performance correlations and in the above champions, offense wins championships. Sure, "defense wins championships" is a nice saying, but 5v5 offensive chance generation has the strongest relationship with playoff success, and only two cup winners have been below average (with one being so close it’s insignificant).
Both Colorado and Winnipeg are above-average 5v5 chance producers; however, the Jets are worse here than the average cup-winning team and worse than the Avs, who sit right at average.
The next most important area is goaltending and power play. The Jets corner the market in goaltending, with their current team actually having better netminder performance than any of the recent Stanley Cup teams. The Avs, on the other hand, have been just below average here. The power play is the opposite here, with Colorado being pretty strong and the Jets being quite weak.
This is where defense finally comes into play. For 5v5 defense, we see almost the exact mirror image of what we saw with 5v5 offense. The Jets are at around the average for championship teams, while the Avalanche are slightly below.
Then we have finishing. Finishing is really good for getting into the playoffs because scoring more goals is never a bad thing. However, finishing can be very volatile and fleeting. It’s hard for teams to rely on elite-level finishing like the Avs have, and Hellebuyck might be the perfect counter for this as well.
Finally, we have the penalty kill, where both teams have done very poorly. Both teams will be happy to hear that the penalty kill hasn’t been that predictive of playoff performance, at least in terms of winning the whole thing.
Despite losing their last head-to-head game against Winnipeg by seven goals while simultaneously being shut out, Colorado has typically been the stronger offensive team but weaker defensively.
That’s not a great recipe for success. But if the Jets can be as smothering as the Sutter LA Kings or their 7-0 win against the Avs, they can tip things in their favor. Also, goaltending is forever the great equalizer.
TRENDS AND RECENT PERFORMANCE
The last 25 games have been shown to be the strongest in relation to predicting playoff success. While Colorado has struggled a bit since around game seventy, they have been pretty strong going back as far as game 50.
Over their last 25 games at 5v5, Colorado has a 59% goal share, 55% Corsi, and 54% expected goal share. The Jets, meanwhile, sit at 55% goal share, 50% Corsi, and 51% expected goal share. That said, the Jets' last 25 games were condensed in a full week less time than the Avs.
FORWARDS
The Colorado Avalanche feature Nathan MacKinnon, who you may just have heard of. He's having a standout season and stands a good chance at winning the Hart Trophy this year, a genuine contender unlike Kucherov.
MacKinnon's prowess on the ice is undeniable. He excels in driving 5v5 offense, and demonstrates proficiency in power plays, finishing, and playmaking. While historically not renowned for his defensive abilities, he's performed above average in that aspect this season.
However, beyond MacKinnon, the Avalanche's top talent drops off more than many would guess. While they boast solid depth, it's largely due to having several forwards slightly above average—a roster depth nearly sufficient to field two hockey teams.
DEFENSE
It's intriguing how the defensive groups mirror the forwards, albeit in the opposite manner.
Josh Morrissey is having another standout season for the Jets. While defensive specialists like Dylan Samberg, Brenden Dillon, and Dylan DeMelo looked promising earlier in the season when the Jets excelled defensively, their performance has dipped along with the team's defensive output.
Interestingly, the Avalanche rely more on a committee approach on defense, with none of their top defenders being as prominent as Cale Makar. However, Makar hasn't looked as strong this year according to models. He's struggled away from MacKinnon's line, and there are suggestions from respected Avalanche fans that Makar may not have been playing at full health this season, possibly due to his rare separation from Toews.
Nevertheless, with players like Girard, Toews, Manson, and Walker stepping up, the Avalanche boast a roster with multiple top-pairing defenders.
MATCHUPS
Both the Avs and Jets prefer power-vs-power matchups for their defensive pairs, with the top pairing facing off against the best forwards from the opposition.
However, their approach differs slightly at forward. While the Avs opt for power-vs-power matchups with their forwards, the Jets stand out as one of the few NHL teams utilizing a third-line shutdown line, actively seeking tough matchups.
While hardmatching presents challenges and may not always yield expected results, on average, all three of the Jets' top lines face similar levels of competition. The Lowry and Scheifele lines typically face opponents with around 16.5 minutes of average time on ice (ATOI), while the Monahan line faces around 15.5 minutes.
This approach doesn't involve extreme sheltering against fourth lines but slightly eases the workload for the other two lines. For comparison, MacKinnon faces opponents with an average ATOI of 17.0, while Mittelstadt faces around 16.0. Although subtle, these differences hold significance.
However, there are potential drawbacks to the Jets' distribution of matchups. It exposes the second line to the top defensive pairs of opposing teams more frequently than usual for second lines, and it grants the opponent's coach some situational control, influencing decisions based on the Jets' lineup choices.
MICROSTATS
The Colorado Avalanche predominantly rely on a rush offense strategy, while the Jets maintain a more balanced approach. Given the Avs' proficiency in rush offense, it will be crucial for the Jets to focus on slowing down the game and stifling Colorado's forecheck and neutral zone transitions.
The Jets excel at limiting high-quality scoring chances, particularly odd-man rushes and lateral passes, arguably making them one of the best teams in the Western Conference in this aspect. This defensive strength allows Connor Hellebuyck to showcase his smart, solid, and consistent goaltending.
Both teams generate a high volume of shots per entry, but Colorado stands out as one of the top teams in converting rush opportunities into goals.
Surprisingly, both the Jets and Avalanche rank among the league leaders in successful carry entries per game. While the Jets have the ability to carry the puck and execute dump-and-chase strategies, they may need to rely more heavily on the latter in this series.
Although the Jets aim to stifle the Avs' offense with aggressive forechecking, executing this strategy against Colorado's efficient puck recovery can be challenging. The Avs excel in retrieving dump-ins without succumbing to the forecheck, with the Jets not far behind. Additionally, Colorado is arguably the best team in the NHL at facilitating zone exits.
The Avalanche lead the league in generating offense from defensive zone starts, indicating their proficiency in transitioning play from defense to offense. While the Jets also perform well in this regard, they generate a relatively higher proportion of offense from neutral zone or offensive zone starts.
The series is likely to showcase a clash of playstyles and strategies, with microstats indicating the Avs' preference for open, rush-oriented hockey, while the Jets thrive when they can slow down the game, apply aggressive neutral zone pressure and forecheck effectively, and dictate the pace of play.
In terms of forechecking, the Avs apply pressure with their speed but may not recover the puck from dump-in entries as successfully as the Jets, who perform above average in this aspect.
Thank you to Corey Sznajder (allthreezones.com) as my tracking consists of only Jets data. Please support the official release.
PAID-SUBSCRIBER WEDNESDAY PREVIEW
The Five Hohl’s weekly post on Wednesdays is where we publish and analyze the Jets’ performances in manually tracked microstatistics. We also conduct weekly analytical deep dives and engage in discussions on the theory and utility of analytics in hockey. We’re also releasing a hockey analytics primer and explainer ebook in the summer, which will be free for any premium subscribers.
Right now I’m focusing on answering questions given to me by paid subsrcibers in terms of more indepth research topics revolving the Jets and
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FINAL THOUGHTS
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