Thanks for the clear-eyed analysis Garret. It’s very true that Father Time is undefeated. The logical bet on Toews would have lots of conditions (low salary, lots of bonuses) - would Toews go for that with his hometown team? And, I would hate that Toews becomes a bit of a novelty act the way Guy Lafleur or Gordie Howe were in their last years, especially with the Jets still being in a winning window.
If you click the link, it goes to an old post by Cam Lawrence that has the drop off for games played. He assumed correlation with performance and games played, but I don't know if that's been looked at.
Thanks for the clear-eyed analysis Garret. It’s very true that Father Time is undefeated. The logical bet on Toews would have lots of conditions (low salary, lots of bonuses) - would Toews go for that with his hometown team? And, I would hate that Toews becomes a bit of a novelty act the way Guy Lafleur or Gordie Howe were in their last years, especially with the Jets still being in a winning window.
Is the reward for both sides worth the risk?
The stats indicating that players with a physical style drop off faster are interesting.
Any statistical correlation established between performance drop off rate and number of games missed due to injury?
If you click the link, it goes to an old post by Cam Lawrence that has the drop off for games played. He assumed correlation with performance and games played, but I don't know if that's been looked at.